India: Trade-level HRC prices remain stable amid limited demand

Hot-rolled (HR) and cold rolled (CR) coil prices experienced a degree of stability. Consequently, the current price range for HRCs and CRCs stands at INR 48,500-51,500/t and INR 55,900-58,500/t respectively across various markets. The trade market overall remained flat amid limited trades and a credit crunch.

BigMint's benchmark assessment (bi-weekly) for HRCs (IS2062, Gr E250, 2.5-8mm) remained stable at INR 48,600/t on 15 October 2024. However, CRC (IS513, Gr O, 0.9mm) prices increase marginally by INR 100/t to INR 55,900/t. These prices are quoted ex-Mumbai, excluding 18% GST, and are for cut-to-length (CTL) deliveries.

Market updates

1. Traders' market remains stable: Post-Navratri and Dusshera holidays, the market for traded products witnessed a temporary lull in demand. Prices have stabilised, halting their recent upward trajectory, as significant festive season purchases and restocking activities have largely concluded.

"The market has stabilised, but demand has begun to contract. Additionally, a credit crunch has emerged, as individuals require funds for advance tax payments and Diwali festivities," a market participant informed BigMint. He further said that the true sustainability of the market will be tested post-Diwali.

2. Import trends: BigMint's cumulative import volume, based on vessel line-up data, touched 394,008 t till 14 October 2024 against 776,835 t in September and 627,426t in August. However, an additional 165,105 t is expected by end-October.

3. Export trends: Indian HRC export offers to the Middle East and Europe exhibited mixed trends this week. Offers to the Middle East saw a sharp increase of $35/t to $565-575/t CFR UAE. Conversely, prices to Europe experienced a slight decline. In the Chinese market, HRC export offers to the Middle East decreased by $15/t, settling at $550-560/t CFR UAE. Meanwhile, offers to Vietnam resumed following a holiday break, priced at $560-570/t CFR HCMC.