India: Trade-level HRC prices remain rangebound ahead of upcoming holidays

Hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices have remained rangebound, establishing a range between INR 50,200-52,800/t ($599-630/t). Cold-rolled (CR) coil prices exhibited a degree of stability, maintaining a range of INR 57,700-61,500/t ($688-733/t) across markets.

BigMint's bi-weekly benchmark evaluation for HRC (2.5-8mm, IS2062, Gr E250 Br) ex-Mumbai declined by INR 100/t ($1/t) to INR 50,300/t ($600/t) as of 16 August 2024, from INR 50,400/t ($601/t) on 13 August. Similarly, CRC (0.9mm, IS513 CR1) ex-Mumbai prices dipped INR 100/t ($1/t) to INR 57,400/t ($685/t) by 16 August compared to INR 57,500/t ($686/t) on 13 August. All prices exclude 18% GST. (INR 1 = USD 0.0119265 ; USD 1 = INR 83.8466)

The Directorate General of Trade Remedies (DGTR) has launched an anti-dumping investigation into imports of hot rolled flat products of alloy or non-alloy steel from Vietnam, encompassing various specifications with a thickness of up to 25 mm and a width of up to 2,100 mm.

Market updates

1. Trade market under pressure: The domestic steel market is facing sluggish demand, coupled with substantial inventory levels at various points in the supply chain. Additionally, the significant influx of imports has further intensified downward pressure on prices.

"Market demand for steel products among traders has remained relatively stagnant," commented a market participant. "Buyers are adopting a more cautious approach, purchasing only essential quantities due to the abundance of inventory across various levels of the supply chain." Additionally, the recent surge in imports has exerted downward pressure on prices.

2. Export and import trends: As evidenced by BigMint's vessel lineup data, cumulative import volumes reached 287,452 t till 12 August. It was 636,651 t as of July 2024, with an additional 106,372 t expected to arrive by end of August.

Indian steel producers have maintained a cautious stance on HRC export offers to Southeast Asia and the Middle East, primarily driven by the escalating global trend of protectionism and anti-dumping policies.

The recent initiation of anti-dumping investigations into HRC imports from India and other countries by the European Union and Vietnam has further increased challenges for Indian steel exports.

Moreover, the seasonal decline in demand in the Middle East and the competitive landscape posed by Chinese HRC offers have contributed to the current subdued export market for Indian HRCs.

Outlook

The combination of abundant material availability and subdued demand has contributed to a decline in prices, aggravated by the availability of cheaper alternatives in the market. The ongoing anti-dumping investigations may provide some support to domestic prices in India over time.