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India: Trade-level HRC prices increase by up to INR 500/t w-o-w

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BigMint Bureau

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27 Dec 2024, 18:19 IST

India: Trade-level HRC prices increase by up to INR 500/t w-o-w

Market awaits mills' Jan price list

Buyers reject higher price band

Hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices increased by up to INR 500/t ($6/t) to INR 46,700-48,500/t ($642-679/t). Conversely, cold-rolled (CR) coil prices remained range bound at INR 53,400-58,800/t ($703-762/t) across markets. Despite an increase in offers stemming from the safeguard duty investigation, most buyers across India resisted these levels.

BigMint's benchmark assessments (bi-weekly) for HRCs (IS2062, Gr E250, 2.5-8 mm/ CTL) increase by INR 300/t ($5/t) to INR 46,700/t ($549/t) as on on 24 December 2024. However, CRC (IS513, Gr O, 0.9 mm / CTL) prices remained stable at INR 53,400/t ($628/t). These prices are quoted ex-Mumbai for the distributor-to-dealer segment and exclude 18% GST.

Market updates

Price increase rejected by buyers: The safeguard duty investigation resulted in increased offers within the market. However, these offers were largely rejected by buyers, with limited upward price pressure observed outside of northern India. Furthermore, the prevailing pressure to improve cash flow within the market during the final quarter of the year likely contributed to these market dynamic.

"As the notification for safeguard duty came many had increased their offers but the same has not been absorbed by the market. The workable rate is still on the lower side," said a market participant.

Imports and exports trend: Imports of bulk HRCs and plates declined to 2,77,175 t till 23 December 2024, as per the bulk vessel line-up data maintained with BigMint. Further, it is expected that around 89,717 t will be imported by the month end.

Indian HRC export offers to the Middle East (ME) remained largely stable w-o-w. However, trading activity in the region slowed significantly due the Christmas and New Year holidays, according to sources based in the ME. Indian HRC export offers to the Middle East were stable at $540-545/t CFR UAE.

Similarly, the European market witnessed subdued activity, with many participants in the EU already on holiday. Export offers to Europe also held steady at $590-595/t CFR Antwerp ($540-545/t FOB, east coast India) for S275, 3 mm material.

Outlook

Market participants have attempted to increase offers, capitalising on the ongoing safeguard duty investigation and the potential for subsequent duty implementation. However, these higher offers have not been widely accepted by the market. Due to the prevailing subdued demand, it is anticipated that prices will remain within a narrow range in the near term, with no significant price surge expected.