India: Trade-level HRC prices fall further by INR 100-500/t; market waiting for clarity on import duty

Hot-rolled steel coil (HRC) prices fell by INR 100-500/t ($1-6/t), establishing a range between INR48,500-51,700/t ($578-616/t). Cold-rolled (CR) coil prices exhibited a degree of stability, maintaining a range of INR 57,700-61,500/t ($687-732/t) across markets even as market participants are waiting for clarity on potential duties to be levied on steel imports.

BigMint's benchmark prices for HRC (2.5-8mm, IS2062, Gr E250 Br) and CRC (0.9mm, IS513 CR1) remained unchanged in the Mumbai market as on 10 September 2024. Prices stood at INR 49,000/t ($583/t) and INR 56,200/t ($669/t) respectively, excluding 18% GST.

Market updates

1. Traders' market continues to fall: The trade market is experiencing a significant downturn due to a near-complete evaporation of demand. Industry chatter suggests that distributors are refraining from acquiring new materials and instead focusing on liquidating existing inventory. Despite lower price quotes from traders, no transactions have been finalised.

A market participant observed, "Demand across all sectors is currently weak, leading to limited sales. To stimulate sales, further price reductions would be necessary, which is placing financial strain on our operations. We have refrained from making new purchases and are solely utilizing existing inventory."

"The market is anticipating clarity on the ongoing anti-dumping investigation and potential tariffs on imports. However, there is concern that if duties are imposed, mills might raise prices, which could have counterproductive effects," another source added.

2. Export and import trends: BigMint's assessment of cumulative import volumes, based on vessel lineup data, stood at 288,156 t till 9 September. Imports in August stood at 627,426 t in August. However, an additional 385,509 t are anticipated to arrive in September.

Indian HRC export offers to Europe fell by $5-10/t week-over-week to $600-605/t CFR Antwerp, driven by weak demand and ongoing anti-dumping measures. Similarly, Chinese HRC prices to the Middle East dropped by $10/t to $490/t CFR UAE, and offers to Vietnam decreased by $15/t to $470/t CFR HCMC. Weak market sentiment and reduced demand are impacting these regions.

Outlook

The market is expected to remain rangebound at current levels awaiting clarity on the ongoing anti-dumping investigation and potential tariffs on imports. An increase in demand in various sectors owing to the upcoming festive season is also awaited.