India: Trade-level HRC prices edge down by up to INR 300/t w-o-w amid limited demand

• Falling trade volumes weigh on market
  
  
• Jan's imports likely to be lowest in FY'25
  
  

Hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices across India declined marginally by up to INR 300/tonne (t) ($3/t) w-o-w to INR 46,600-48,100/t ($539-557/t) amid limited demand. Conversely, cold-rolled coil (CRC) prices remained stable w-o-w at INR 53,300-58,000/t ($617-671/t) across markets.

BigMint's benchmark assessments (bi-weekly) for HRCs (IS2062, Gr E250, 2.5-8 mm/CTL), however, increased by INR 100/t ($5/t) w-o-w to INR 46,600/t ($549/t) on 22 January 2025. Meanwhile, CRC (IS513, Gr O, 0.9 mm/CTL) prices remained stable w-o-w at INR 53,600/t ($628/t). These prices are quoted ex-Mumbai for the distributor-to-dealer segment and exclude 18% GST.

Market updates

Trade segment faces limited demand: The trade market experienced significant pressure due to subdued demand and declining sales volumes. In Mumbai, an increase in offers was observed, although their acceptance remains uncertain. Meanwhile, price increases in the northern region corrected, as material supply in the area improved.

"The market is facing weak demand, making it challenging to secure sales," noted a market participant. "Additionally, reports suggest one mill has offered price support of INR 750/t, and distributors are pushing for a rollback of the hike implemented earlier this month."

Import, export trends: Imports of bulk HRCs and plates stood at 339,801 t till 20 January 2025, as per vessel line-up data maintained with BigMint. It is expected that an additional 99,028 t will be imported by the month-end. January's imports are expected to be the lowest in FY'25.

Export offers exhibit mixed trends: Indian mills' HRC offers to the Middle East declined by $10/t w-o-w to $520-525/t CFR UAE from $530-535/t last week. A deal for approximately 15,000 t was concluded at around the current levels.

Meanwhile, imports to the European Union (EU) remained sluggish due to ongoing anti-dumping investigations and cautious buyer sentiment. Indian mills showed limited activity in the EU market, with the last indicative offers for S275, 3 mm material hovering at around $590-595/t CFR Antwerp ($540-545/t FOB east coast India).

Outlook

The HRC market is currently experiencing subdued demand. Speculation suggests that other mills may introduce price support measures, following the lead of one mill. As a result, prices are expected to remain within the current range.