India: Trade level HRC prices decline amid influx of imports

Hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices declined by INR 200-800/t, establishing a range between INR 52,900-55,500/t ($634-665/t). Conversely, cold-rolled (CR) coil prices exhibited a degree of stability, maintaining a range of INR 57,500-63,400/t ($689-759/t) across various markets. Even the price decline by mills was unable to lift mood of the market.

BigMint's benchmark assessment (bi-weekly) for HRC (2.5-8mm, IS2062, Gr E-250 Br.) prices remained stable at INR 53,000/t ($635/t) on 9 July 2024, compared to the previous week. However, CRC (0.90mm, IS 513, CR1) prices went down marginally by INR 200/t ($2/t) to INR 59,600/t ($714/t) during the same period. These prices are quoted ex-Mumbai, excluding 18% GST, and are for cut-to-length (CTL) deliveries. (INR 1 = USD 0.0119769 ; USD 1 = INR 83.4938)

Market updates

1. Trading market under pressure: The trading market persists in a state of sluggishness primarily attributed to subdued demand at prevailing price levels and the influx of cost-effective imports. Some market participants further indicated that mills' were selling at a discount however the same could not be confirmed

"Market sentiment remains subdued due to limited demand and tightening liquidity. We are prepared to supply materials at reduced rates amid concerns over weak demand and competitive import pricing impacting the market," a market participant said.

2. Export, import trends: India's bulk HRC and plate imports are surging, according to vessel line-up data compiled by BigMint. Imports are outpacing exports, with an estimated additional 1,26,417 tonnes (t) expected to arrive by end July 2024.

Indian steel mills have commenced offering HRC for export to Europe, specifically grade S275 with a thickness of 3mm. This development comes amid sluggish global demand, which is currently causing a pause in Indian HRC exports to Southeast Asia and the Middle East.

Meanwhile, Baosteel, the world's leading steel producer, has implemented a price reduction of RMB 100/t (approximately $14/t) on HRC for August 2024 sales. Vietnamese mills, on the other hand, have opted to maintain their current HRC pricing structure.