India: Tier-I mills hike HRC list prices by up to INR 2,000/t against end of Jan'25 prices for Feb'25 sales

• Domestic trade-level prices remain range-bound w-o-w
  
  
• Weak demand may keep trade-level tags range-bound
  
  

Indian tier-I steel mills have officially announced an increase of INR 1,500-2,000/t ($6-18/t) in list prices of hot-rolled coils (HRCs) and cold-rolled coils (CRCs) for February 2025 sales against end-January 2025 levels. While this price hike was confirmed by several mills, official announcements from a few others are still awaited.

List prices of HRCs (2.5-8 mm, IS2062, Gr E250, Br.) stood at INR 48,200-49,800/t ($565-582/t) exy-Mumbai, while those of CRCs (0.9 mm, IS513 CR1) hovered at around INR 53,000-56,000/t ($631-652/t). These prices exclude the 18% GST.

Market scenario

Maintenance and shutdowns at key mills: Market buzz indicates that JSW Vijayanagar's HSM2 is undergoing major maintenance for 20-30 days, with an estimated production loss of 150,000-170,000 t. Additionally, AM/NS India has shut down its Corex-2 plant, impacting production capacity. As per market sources, other mills might also scheduled some maintenance this month.

Domestic trade market remains stable m-o-m: In India's trade segment, the monthly average price of HRCs edged up by INR 100/t ($1/t) m-o-m to INR 47,000/t ($546/t) in January 2025, while CRC prices remained stable at INR 53,600/t ($624/t).

HRC trade prices rose through the month, with Mumbai's benchmark assessment seeing a sharp uptick toward the end of January. This was driven by declining import inventories and speculation about a potential safeguard duty.

Other markets also saw slight increases amid rumours of mills' price hikes, safeguard duty implementation, and expectations from the Union Budget.

Imports trends: As per BigMint's vessel line-up data, the cumulative import volume touched 4,71,623 t in Janaury 2025. It was 4,73,222 t in December and 5,71,656 t in November.

Export trends: Indian exporters have resumed HRC offers to the Middle East in the absence of competitive Chinese prices while European demand remained weak due to ongoing anti-dumping investigations.

Weekly price update

BigMint's benchmark assessment prices (bi-weekly) of HRCs (IS2062, Gr E250, 2.5-8 mm) increased margnally by INR 200/t w-o-w to INR 48,700/t ($543/t). However, CRCs (IS513, Gr O, 0.9 mm) remained stable at INR 53,700/t, respectively, on 4 February 2025. The prices quoted are exy-Mumbai, exclude 18% GST, and are for cut-to-length (CTL) deliveries.

Outlook

Planned maintenance at key mills may tighten supply, coinciding with anticipated quarter-end demand. However, buyer price resistance and generally subdued market activity are expected to moderate any potential price increases. While some upward price movement is likely, a sharp surge is not expected.