India: Tier-I mills hike HRC list prices by up to INR 1,000-1,500/t against end-Dec'24 for Jan'25 sales

• Talk of potential safeguard duty prompts price hike
  
  
• Weak demand may keep trade tags range-bound
  
  

Indian tier-I steel mills have officially announced an increase of INR 1,000-1,500/t ($6-18/t) in list prices of hot-rolled coils (HRCs) and cold-rolled coils (CRCs) for January 2025 sales against end-December 2024 levels. This upward adjustment is primarily driven by speculation prevailing regarding potential safeguard duty implementations. While this price hike was confirmed by several mills, official announcements from a few others are still awaited.

List prices of HRCs (2.5-8 mm, IS2062, Gr E250, Br.) stood at INR 48,500-50,000/t ($565-582/t) exy-Mumbai, while those of CRCs (0.9 mm, IS513 CR1) hovered at around INR 53,000-56,000/t ($631-652/t). These prices exclude GST of 18%.

Market scenario

Domestic trade market sees downtrend m-o-m: In India's trade segment, monthly average prices of HRCs declined by INR 1,200/t ($14/t) m-o-m to INR 46,900/t ($546/t) in December 2024. Similarly, monthly average CRC prices were down by INR 1,600/t ($19/t) to INR 53,600 ($624/t).

HRC trade prices increased in the middle of December 2024, owing to the initiation of the safeguard duty investigation into India's steel imports. However, as the month progressed, a notable slowdown emerged due to weakening demand, as buyers rejected the higher prices. This pulled down prices in various trade markets, except those in northern India, where suppliers stood their ground, keeping offers firm due to a supply shortage and leaner inventories.

HRC imports decline m-o-m: As per BigMint's vessel line-up data, the cumulative import volume touched 473,222 t in December 2024. It was 571,656 t in November and 687,297 t in October.

Export market remains steady w-o-w: India's hot-rolled coil (HRC) export offers to Europe and the Middle East remained stable w-o-w, while Chinese offers declined across key markets, including the Middle East and Vietnam, due to weakening demand and pricing pressures.

Weekly price update

BigMint's benchmark assessment prices (bi-weekly) of HRCs (IS2062, Gr E250, 2.5-8 mm) and CRCs (IS513, Gr O, 0.9 mm) remained stable w-o-w at INR 46,600/t ($543/t) and INR 53,400/t ($622/t), respectively, on 7 January 2025. The prices quoted are exy-Mumbai, exclude 18% GST, and are for cut-to-length (CTL) deliveries.

Outlook

It seems that mills will encounter significant challenges in gaining the market's acceptance towards the recent price hike. Demand is currently restricted to lower prices and immediate needs only, which has limited trade activity. Although speculation regarding the potential implementation of safeguard duties has lent the market support, falling demand is likely to confine price fluctuations within a narrow range in the trade market.