India: Tier-1 mills hike rebar prices by up to INR 1,000/t ($12/t) for early-Jan'25

• 15% m-o-m drop in rebar stocks prompts price hike
  
  
• IF rebar prices rise m-o-m amid moderate buying
  
  

Indian tier-1 mills raised rebar list prices for early-January 2025 deliveries by INR 500-1,000/tonne (t) ($6-12/t) compared to end-December 2024 levels, sources informed BigMint. Post revision, list prices hovered within INR 51,500-52,500/t ($601-613/t) on a landed basis. Notably, mills offered discounts/rebates in the previous month.

It should also be noted that rebar inventories with mills declined by around 15% m-o-m in early-January 2025. This appears to be the major factor driving the hike in offers, sources highlighted.

Update on projects

• The power transmission and distribution (PT&D) vertical of Larsen & Toubro (L&T) secured new orders in India and the Middle East. These include implementing an advanced distribution management system in West Bengal, a 380-kV substation in Saudi Arabia for solar evacuation, a 400-kV substation in Kuwait, and several extra-high voltage (EHV) substations in Dubai to enhance power infrastructure and reliability.
  
  
• KEC International Ltd has secured orders worth INR 1,136 crores. These include a 765 kV transmission line project from PGCIL, a significant Train Collision Avoidance System (TCAS) order under 'Kavach', and a design, supply, and build order for pipelines from a leading PSU.
  
  

Factors behind market dynamics

1. IF-rebar prices rise m-o-m: Induction furnace (IF) rebar trade prices rose m-o-m in December 2024 amid moderate buying activities across markets. In Mumbai, prices increased by INR 800/t ($9/t) m-o-m to INR 47,300/t ($552/t) exw.

Last month, manufacturers offered discounts to liquidate their material, and inventory idling time was at around 10-12 days across markets. Prices of raw materials and semi-finished steel also witnessed an increase last month, which supported IF rebar prices.

The price gap between BF-IF rebars stood at INR 5,000/t ($58/t) in the Mumbai market. Notably, IF rebars command a 65-70% share of the market.

2. Property registrations rise m-o-m: Property registrations in Mumbai, the country's largest real estate market, increased by 22% m-o-m to 12,415 units in December as against 10,200 units a month ago, as per data released by Knight Frank India.

On a y-o-y basis, property registrations edged down by 1% compared with 12,487 units in December 2023. The same increased 11% y-o-y to 1.41 lakh units in CY'24 as against 1.27 lakh units in the preceding year.

Outlook

Market participants expect prices to remain range-bound in the near term amid weak buying activities.