India: Surge in high-grade manganese ore prices continue on supply constraints, inventory concerns

• Surge in inquiries for high-grade ore from China
  
  
• Weekly cargo import volume declines slightly
  
  

Prices of imported high-grade manganese ore has experienced a significant increase w-o-w, reaching record highs.

• Australian high-grade ore (46% Mn): Prices jumped by $1.4/dmtu to $9/dmtu due to limited availability of high-grade manganese alloys, a key derivative of this ore.
  
  
• Gabonese high-grade ore (44% Mn): Prices surged by $1.3/dmtu to $8.45/dmtu w-o-w, reflecting the tight supply situation. While there has been rising demand for high-grade ore from global smelters, it hasn't been enough to completely offset the supply constraints, keeping prices elevated.
  
  
• South African lumps (37% Mn): Prices remained stable at around $6.45/dmtu. Cautious buying behavior by Indian smelters has kept demand for this lower grade ore subdued.
  
  

Market overview

High-grade manganese ore market tightens driven by Chinese demand: The high-grade manganese ore market is experiencing a period of tightening supply and rising prices. There has been a surge in inquiries for high-grade ore from China, coinciding with limited availability of the material within their borders. Few high-grade bookings for China at around $8.3/dmtu for 15,000-20,000 t has established this price point as a benchmark for the market.

This dynamic has directly impacted export prices for ore destined for India. As a result, miners have responded by raising their offers to record highs, reflecting the tightening supply situation and strong demand from China.

Indian silico manganese prices increase on rising ore prices: Silico manganese prices in India jumped INR 2,750/t ($33/t) w-o-w to INR 85,000-86,600/t ($1,019-1,038/t) exw. This follows Comilog's new offer for Gabonese grade manganese ore. The future outlook is uncertain due to MOIL's recent hike in manganese ore prices by 30-35%. Market participants will monitor the impact on silico manganese prices and global supply-demand trends.

Weekly arrivals of imported cargoes fall by 7% w-o-w: Manganese ore cargo arrivals in India witnessed a decrease of 22% for Mn 37%, Mn 44%, and Mn 46 grades. This comes after a previous week with higher volumes, with weekly shipments reaching 130,185 t between 22 to 28 May, 2024, compared to 139,539 t. This decline reflects a shift in buying patterns by smelters, who are now strategically acquiring lower volumes due to an uncertain market outlook.