India: SteelMint's iron ore fines export index inches up, over 500,000 t export deals recorded

SteelMint's weekly Indian low-grade iron ore fines (Fe 57%) export index inched up by $1/tonne (t) w-o-w to $89/t FOB east coast on 30 November, 2023. Two deal totals of 130,000 t of standard Fe 57% were recorded at $101-103/t CFR China in this publishing window. Out of total around 540,000 t iron ore fines (Fe 54-57%) deals have been concluded in this week so far but only few got confirmation before publishing this article.

The Indian iron ore export market remained supported despite the declined global spot and futures prices in the last one week as the Chinese authority warned the traders about illegal activities. The Odisha-based seller said that prices were quite healthy last weekend, and most of the miners and traders sold their material during this time. Despite prices fallen in this week, trades were happened decently this week.

An east Indian-based trader stated that the Chinese buyers booked a lot of iron ore fines from India in the past few weeks and demand may fade in the coming days as construction activity may slow down in the winter in China following the last few years' trend.

Another iron ore seller said that we are dispatching the material to port from our Odisha-based mines and expecting that prices will increase or may sustain at this level as there is no update about sinter feed restrictions from China.

As per reports, it appears that the peak season of raw material consumption in the seaborne market has gone, with winter approaching in China and construction activity expected to slow down moving forward.

Price indicators:

• Two deals were reported this week and taken into calculation. Thus, given 50% weightage. For detailed methodology Click here.
  
  
• SteelMint received fourteen (14) indicative prices in the current publishing window and thirteen (13) were considered for price calculation as T2 inputs and given 50% weightage.
  
  

Market highlights:

• W-o-w fall in global iron ore prices: The benchmark Fe 62% fines index fell by around $6/t on a w-o-w basis to $130/t CFR China on 29 November. Import losses and hefty costs weighed on demand, although traders' buying interest remained strong. Some Chinese steel mills have reduced production costs by feeding more scrap into blast furnaces and using less iron ore, due to the higher cost of the latter.
  
  
• DCE iron ore futures fall w-o-w: Iron ore futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) for January, 2024 contract fell by around RMB 7/t ($1/t) to RMB 969.5/t ($137/t) on 30 November. However, futures increased by RMB 14/t ($2/t) d-o-d compared to RMB 955.5/t ($135/t) on 29 November.
  
  
• Iron ore port inventory in China inches up w-o-w: Iron ore inventory at major Chinese ports slightly increased by around 0.9 mnt to 108.5 mnt on 23 November compared to the previous week, according to SteelHome data.
  
  

India's iron ore export shipments were recorded at 776,220 t in the second week of November compared to 385,786 t in the third week of November, as per vessel line-up data maintained with SteelMint.

Outlook

Indian iron ore offers may remain volatile in the coming days as market participants are expecting sinter feed production cut orders from the Chinese government in the coming days for this winter.