India: SteelMint HRC export index stable as market awaits fresh offers from mills

SteelMint's India HRC (SAE1006) export index (for Southeast Asia and Middle East regions) remained stable w-o-w at $580/t FOB east coast India. Indian steel mills held back export offers amid limited allocations and higher realisation in the domestic market. In addition, major mills have raised HRC domestic offers recently. "Indian HRC export price indications to the Europe were at around $690/t CFR Antwerp. But no bookings were heard. While no fresh offers were heard for Middle East (ME) amid limited trade activities and competitive Chinese offers in the ME market.

Market-wise update

1. Chinese offers range-bound for Middle East: Chinese HRC (SAE1006) export offers to the Middle East (ME) market remained range-bound w-o-w at $580-585/t CFR UAE. Trading activities were very limited, which kept prices range-bound despite a 30% production cut in Tangshan city due to the severe environmental situation in China. Furthermore, Indian mills were not actively offering in the market, with last indications heard at around $615-620/t CFR UAE.

2. Vietnam market yet to return from holidays: Imported offers for China-origin hot-rolled coils (HRC SAE1006) into Vietnam remained absent as market participants in Vietnam were on holiday from 1-4 September, 2023 for Independence Day celebration. No new offers were heard as Vietnamese buyers have just returned from holiday and are currently in a wait-and-watch mode, informed a source. Last offers were heard at around $575/t, CFR Vietnam. Chinese Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) for January contract too remained volatile. For instance, futures rose by RMB 68/t ($9/t) w-o-w to RMB 3,923/t ($539/t). However, the same dropped by RMB 10/t ($1/t) d-o-d.

3. Indian HRC offers to EU stable w-o-w: Indian HRC export (S275, 3mm) offers to Europe remained stable w-o-w at $690-695/t CFR Antwerp. However, hardly any trading activities were heard as market participants are in a wait and watch mode and are expected to return this week, informed a source. Moreover, European steelmakers have been gradually pushing for higher prices but uptrend remains in doubt and more clarity is expected when all the buyers and sellers return after the summer break.

Outlook
Indian mills are having limited allocations. They have diverted allocations in the domestic market for better realisations. Indian steel mills yesterday announced hike of INR 1,250/t m-o-m for early September dispatches. Revised offers stand at HRC (IS2062, Gr- E250, 2.5-8mm): INR 58,250-58,500/t exy Mumbai. Market participants expect Indian mills to resume export offers for some markets next week, after these domestic price announcements.