India: Stainless steel prices remain stable w-o-w; Imported scrap prices inch up amid supply tightness

India's stainless steel prices, including domestic finished flats and scrap, remained stable w-o-w, supported by recent festivities, despite a slight increase in LME nickel prices. Additionally, imported scrap prices rose slightly due to limited availability.

BigMint's benchmark assessments for stainless steel (304 series) hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices stood at INR 182,000/tonne (t) ex-Mumbai, while domestic 304-grade scrap was priced at INR 121,000/t ex-works Delhi.

LME nickel price trend

At the time of reporting, three-month LME nickel prices were at $16,100/t, marking a 1% increase from the previous week's $15,990/t. Meanwhile, nickel stocks in LME-registered warehouses rose w-o-w, reaching 123,726 t, up from 122,214 t the previous week.

In a recent update, plans for two new nickel trading platforms to rival the LME faced setbacks due to BHP's suspension of its Western Australian operations. These initiatives, backed by BHP, required its nickel volumes to compete effectively but now seek alternative supplies. The LME has maintained dominance, as nickel prices have fallen over 80% since March 2022, with BHP citing market oversupply and declining prices as reasons for its operational shutdown.

Domestic finished flat segment remains stable

In the finished flat segment, prices saw a marginal increase this week. According to BigMint's assessment, 304 HRC prices ranged between INR 181,000-183,000/t, while SS316 HRC stood at INR 316,000-318,000/t ex-Mumbai.

A source stated: "Following the price increase by the largest stainless steel coil manufacturer for 316-grade coils, driven by rising molybdenum prices, the market has remained relatively stable with limited transactions. Demand has been weak, especially due to ongoing festivities in the Mumbai region over the past couple of weeks. Many market participants have yet to fully resume activity after the holiday period."

A recent deal for 70 t of SS 316 CRC was heard at INR 330,000/t, ex-Mumbai.

Domestic finished longs (AOD grade) indicative levels

In the finished longs segment, 304L (100-130 mm) black round bars were priced at INR 201,000-203,000/t ex-Mumbai, while SS 304L bright bars were priced at INR 218,000-220,000/t ex-Mumbai. SS 316L black round bars were offered at INR 311,000-313,000/t ex-Mumbai, and SS 316L bright bars were priced at INR 332,000-334,000/t ex-Mumbai.

Indicative prices of SS 304 wire rods (5-16mm) were reported at INR 166,000-168,000/t, while SS 316-grade wire rods were priced at INR 284,000-286,000/t, both ex-works Mumbai.

A mill source informed BigMint, "Currently, the demand for finished long stainless steel products is weak, though there is a slight shortage of 316L bright material."

Additionally, FOB Nhava Sheva prices of 304 bright bars (20-100mm) were at $2,400-2,410/t, while 316 bright bars (20-100mm) were priced at $4,000/t. Wire rods (5.5-16mm) were at $2,170/t.

Scrap market insights

This week, domestic 304 scrap prices remained steady at INR 121,000/t ex-Delhi NCR, on cash payment terms. Sources indicated that major mills are purchasing 304 scrap at around INR 124,000-126,000/t delivered (DAP), with a credit period of 30-45 days.

Imported scrap prices saw marginal gains w-o-w amid supply tightness. A trader said: "The EU has been importing significant volumes of scrap, reducing availability for other regions and leading to price increases."

BigMint's benchmark assessment for imported SS 304-grade scrap was $1,430/t CFR Mundra, with suppliers quoting $1,440-$1,450/t. Buyers' bids were slightly lower, ranging between $1,410 and $1,420/t. Meanwhile, 316-grade scrap was priced at $2,630/t CFR Mundra, with suppliers offering it at $2,650-$2,660/t. Buyers' bids were at approximately $2,610-$2,620/t.

Additionally, the indicative levels of SS 430-grade scrap originating from the nearshore region was heard at $640-660/t and that of 201-grade was priced at $740-760/t, CFR West Coast, India.

China market prices stable during festivities

In China, domestic stainless steel prices remained stable w-o-w due to market closures for the Mid-Autumn festival. Prices of 304-grade CRC reached RMB 14,400/t ($2,005/t) ex-works, while FOB prices of 304-grade CRC were at $2,101/t.

In 2024, China's stainless steel market has experienced significant volatility due to supply and demand imbalances. Despite sluggish demand and high supply, rising nickel ore prices and low production profits have provided some support. While the machinery sector remains weak, demand from home appliances and transportation has been relatively strong. It is anticipated that interest rate cuts may stimulate market activity, fostering cautious optimism amid ongoing challenges in the stainless steel market.

Raw materials' scenario

Ferro molybdenum: Indian ferro molybdenum prices were relatively range-bound this week, with an increase of INR 20,000/t ($239/t) w-o-w compared to the previous assessment on 11 September, 2024. According to BigMint's assessment on 18 September, ferro molybdenum prices in India stood at INR 2,540,000/t ($30,342/t) ex-works Nagpur on a 60% pro-rata basis.

Ferro chrome: Indian ferro chrome prices (HC, FeCr60%) stood at INR 107,100/t ex-works Jajpur, largely stable w-o-w.

Outlook

Stainless steel prices are expected to see a slight downward correction due to falling LME nickel prices. However, domestic trading activity is expected to remain low to moderate due to the upcoming festivities. In the near term, global nickel prices on the LME may experience short-term fluctuations.