India: Stainless steel prices remain stable w-o-w despite a rise in LME nickel

India's stainless steel prices, including domestic finished flats and scrap, remained stable w-o-w despite a slight increase in LME nickel prices. Meanwhile, imported scrap prices saw a minor decline this week.

BigMint's benchmark assessments for stainless steel (304 series) hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices stood at INR 182,000/tonne (t) ex-Mumbai, while domestic 304-grade scrap was priced at INR 121,000/t ex-works Delhi.

In a recent update, the Indian Stainless Steel Development Association (ISSDA) has approached the Ministry of Steel, requesting a surtax on all stainless steel imports from China. In a letter to Secretary Sandeep Poundrik, the ISSDA highlighted that Chinese producers benefit from significant, non-WTO-compliant subsidies, distorting market conditions.

Additionally, they cited Canada's recent 25% surtax on Chinese steel and aluminium imports, effective 15 October, 2024, as a model for similar trade barriers in India. The ISSDA warned that subsidised imports threaten the viability of Indian producers, particularly Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs), risking job losses and decreased investments in the sector.

LME nickel price trend

At the time of reporting, three-month LME nickel prices were at $16,740/t, marking a 4% increase from the previous week's $16,100/t. Meanwhile, nickel stocks in LME-registered warehouses rose w-o-w, reaching 124,140 t, up from 123,726 t the previous week. China's recent policy actions, such as lowering the reserve requirement ratio, have improved market sentiment, contributing to an increase in base metal prices.

Additionally, downstream companies are ramping up purchases in anticipation of the National Day holiday, which has further enhanced buying activity and pushed nickel prices up. However, despite this increase, the fundamental conditions of the nickel market remain weak, indicating possible short-term volatility ahead.

According to projections by the International Nickel Study Group (INSG), global nickel production will touch 3.65 mnt in calendar year 2025 (CY'25), up from 3.52 mnt in CY'24.

Domestic finished flat segment remains stable

In the finished flat segment, prices saw a marginal increase this week. According to BigMint's assessment, 304 HRC prices ranged between INR 181,000-183,000/t, while SS316 HRC stood at INR 316,000-318,000/t ex-Mumbai.

A source stated:"The market has remained relatively stable with minor fluctuations observed. Additionally, trade activities have been at low to moderate levels. The availability for CRC in the market is sufficient and the demand is also moderate keeping prices steady."

Another trader commented: "Sales of stainless steel flat products are decent, but the pace is somewhat slower compared to last year, especially with the upcoming Diwali season."

A recent deal for 130 t of SS 316 CRC was heard at INR 330,000/t, ex-Mumbai. Another deal for 100 t of SS 304 HRC was heard concluded at around INR 189,000/t, ex-Mumbai.

Domestic finished longs' (AOD grade) indicative levels

In the finished longs' segment, 304L (100-130 mm) black round bars were priced at INR 204,000-206,000/t exw-Mumbai, while SS 304 bright bars were at INR 218,000-220,000/t exw-Mumbai. SS 316L black round bars were offered at INR 312,000-314,000/t exw-Mumbai, and SS 316L bright bars were priced at INR 333,000-335,000/t exw-Mumbai.

Indicative prices of SS 304 wire rods (5-16mm) were reported at INR 165,000-167,000/t, while SS 316-grade wire rods were priced at INR 284,000-286,000/t, both ex-works Mumbai.

A mill official said: "The market is experiencing a slowdown in transactional activities, and demand is lacklustre. Prices are anticipated to undergo a downward adjustment in the coming days, especially with the upcoming festivities."

Additionally, FOB Nhava Sheva prices of 304 bright bars (20-100mm) were at $2,410-2,430/t, while 316 bright bars (20-100mm) were priced at $4,010-4,030/t. Wire rods (5.5-16mm) were at $2,160-2,180/t.

Scrap market insights

This week, domestic 304 scrap prices remained steady at INR 121,000/t ex-Delhi NCR, on cash payment terms. Sources indicated that major mills are purchasing 304 scrap at around INR 123,000-125,000/t delivered (DAP), with a credit period of 30-45 days.

The inquiries for imported scrap have increased particularly from mill side buyers driven by the slight drop in offered prices. A trader said: "Mills are actively purchasing imported scrap to stock up on materials ahead of the upcoming festive holidays."

BigMint's benchmark assessment for imported SS 304-grade scrap was $1,410/t CFR Mundra, with suppliers quoting $1,420-$1,430/t. Buyers' bids were slightly lower, ranging between $1,370 and $1,380/t. Meanwhile, 316-grade scrap was priced at $2,610/t CFR Mundra, with suppliers offering it at $2,620-$2,630/t. Buyers' bids were at approximately $2,570-$2,580/t.

Additionally, the indicative levels of SS 430-grade scrap originating from the nearshore region was heard at $650-670/t and that of 201-grade was priced at $750-770/t, CFR West Coast, India.

China market prices stable during festivities

In China, domestic stainless steel prices remained largely stable w-o-w. Prices of 304-grade CRC reached RMB 14,000/t ($2,005/t) ex-works, while FOB prices of 304-grade CRC were at $2,055/t.

In August, China's stainless steel production rose to 3.36 mnt, a 3% y-o-y increase. Exports reached 488,000 t, a 33% rise, while imports fell to 99,500 t, down 7.5%. Scrap imports plummeted by 61% y-o-y to 7,060 t, with total imports down by 70% for the year.

Raw materials' scenario

Ferro molybdenum: Indian ferro molybdenum prices have remained range-bound over the past few weeks due to steady global demand. However, prices fell by INR 25,000/tonnes ($299/t) w-o-w, compared to the previous assessment on 18 September.

According to BigMint's assessment on 25 September, ferro molybdenum prices in India stood at approximately INR 2,515,000/t ($30,106/t) ex-works Nagpur, based on a 60% pro-rata basis.

Ferro chrome: Indian ferro chrome prices (HC, FeCr60%) stood at INR 110,000/t ex-works Jajpur, up by INR 2,900/t w-o-w.

Outlook

Stainless steel prices are anticipated to undergo a slight downward correction, while domestic trading activity is likely to remain low to moderate due to the upcoming festivities. In the near term, global nickel prices on the LME may experience fluctuations.