India: Stainless steel prices largely stable w-o-w amid year-end demand slump

• Stainless steel market subdued as year-end approaches
  
  
• LME nickel prices fall, surplus expected
  
  

Indian finished stainless steel prices remained rangebound w-o-w, with flat product prices holding steady while domestic long product prices saw a slight decline. Overall, trade activity and demand remained muted, with only need-based purchasing seen as the year-end approaches.

A trader source informed BigMint, "The overall demand for finished stainless steel is currently slow, with no expectations for improvement this month. Any significant movement is likely to occur only in the coming months."

As per Indian Stainless Steel Development Association (ISSDA), stainless steel use in India grew 11% from 4.02 mnt in FY'23 to 4.46 mnt in FY'24, driven by demand in infrastructure, processing, and railroads. With a per capita consumption of 3.1 kg, India's stainless steel capacity is set to expand from 7.5 mnt to 19-20 mnt by 2047, supported by sustainable growth and government policies.

LME nickel prices dip

At the time of reporting, three-month LME nickel prices were at $15,735/t, marking a 3% decrease from the previous week's $16,185/t. Meanwhile, nickel stocks in LME-registered warehouses rose 3% w-o-w to 165,810 t from 164,430 t last week.

In a recent update, Russia's Nornickel expects a 150,000 t nickel surplus in 2024-2025, driven by increased cathode nickel supply from China. Western sanctions have impacted sales, forcing Nornickel to redirect its metal exports to Asia despite being exempt from direct sanctions.

Domestic finished flats steady

BigMint's benchmark assessments for stainless steel (304 series) hot-rolled coils (HRCs) was stable at INR 178,000/t ex-Mumbai, showing stability w-o-w.

In the domestic finished flats segment, prices remained stable for the week. According to BigMint's assessment, SS316 HRCs were at INR 322,000-324,000/t ex-Mumbai.

A source informed, "Demand for finished materials is sluggish, and the domestic market remains quiet. Overall, market conditions are stable, with many participants anticipating a potential uptick in demand that could stimulate activity and lead to price changes."

Finished longs prices

BigMint's benchmark assessment for stainless steel 304L (25-100 mm) black round bars was at INR 179,500/t ex-Mumbai, down INR 500/t w-o-w.

Meanwhile, SS 316L black round bars stood at INR 289,000-291,000/t ex-Mumbai. Prices of SS 316L bright bars stood at INR 310,000-311,000/t ex-Mumbai, firm w-o-w.

SS 304 wire rods (5-16 mm) in Mumbai were recorded by BigMint at INR 159,000-161,000/t.

A trader source informed, "Current demand for long products is also weak, but the market is expected to improve after the budget, especially if new infrastructure projects are launched, which could boost the demand for long products."

Chinese prices edge down

In China, domestic stainless steel prices for 304-grade cold-rolled coils (CRCs) stood at RMB 13,850/t ($1,906/t) exw, down by RMB 100/t ($13/t) w-o-w, while FOB prices of 304-grade CRCs were at $1,974/t.

Global updates

Spain: Acerinox completes sale of Bahru Stainless

Acerinox, Spain's largest stainless steel producer, has sold its defunct Malaysian subsidiary, Bahru Stainless Sdn. Bhd., to local group Worldwide Stainless Sdn. Bhd. for $95 million. Operations were halted in May due to regional competitiveness challenges. In 2023, Acerinox produced 77,181 t of cold-rolled products and has a global smelting capacity of 3.5 mnt annually.

Raw materials scenario

Ferro molybdenum: Indian ferro molybdenum prices remained unchanged w-o-w compared to the previous assessment on 4 December. Prices were steady, as routine market activities were observed, with no significant variations in offers.

BigMint assessed ferro molybdenum prices in India at INR 2,544,000/t ($29,978/t) exw on 11 December. Trades of around 10 t were recorded by BigMint this week, within the price bracket of INR 2,530,000-2,535,000/t ($29,813-29,872/t) exw.

Ferro chrome: Indian ferro chrome prices (HC, FeCr60%) stood at INR 106,000/t exw-Jajpur, largely stable w-o-w.

Outlook

In the near term, market prices are expected to undergo a minor correction, as demand typically weakens towards the year-end. Market participants anticipate a pickup in demand after January 2025.