India: Stainless steel prices largely stable despite minor drop in LME nickel prices

In India, finished stainless steel prices have mostly stayed stable this week which can be linked to a minor decrease in LME nickel prices. Scrap prices in the domestic market have remained firm, while imported scrap prices have experienced a minor gain w-o-w.

The stability seen in finished product prices can be attributed to a marginal drop in nickel prices on the LME, which fell by $160/t w-o-w. Nickel prices for 3-month delivery on LME saw a 0.8% decrease, reaching $20,620/t, at the time of reporting.

Meanwhile, nickel stocks in LME warehouses decreased by 0.4% compared to the previous week, reaching 83,730 t.

India's stainless steel 304 HRC prices stood at INR 182,000/t ex-Mumbai and domestic 304-grade scrap prices stood firm at INR 124,000/t ex-works Delhi, BigMint's assessment reveals.

Scrap market

In the local scrap market, prices for 304 scrap have remained strong, ranging from INR 124,000/t ex-Delhi NCR, with cash payment terms. Sources indicate that key mills are acquiring 304 scrap at around INR 124,000 to 126,000/t DAP, with a credit period of 45 days.

A trader informed BigMint, " Currently, the market appears highly volatile with significant disparities between bid and offer prices, leading to reduced buying activity."

This week, there has been a slight increase in imported offers, with BigMint's assessment indicating prices for 304-grade scrap at levels ranging from $1,480-$1,500/t CFR Mundra.

316-grade scrap was priced at $2,680/t CFR Mundra, moving up by $30/t w-o-w. Offers of 316-grade were heard at $2,700-$2,750/t. Meanwhile, buyers' bids were heard in the range of $2,620-$2,630/t.

Offers of SS 304 scrap of Middle East-origin stood at $1,500-$1,520/t, while 316 stood at $2,690-$2,710/t CFR Mundra.

Finished flat segment

As per BigMint's assessment, 316 HRC stood at INR 314,500/t ex-Mumbai.

According to a buyer source, "There is a prevailing trend of minimal activity in the market, driven by downward pressure on demand, primarily influenced by fluctuating LME nickel prices. Buyers are anticipating a slight downward correction in prices."

Meanwhile, imported offers of SS 304 HRC from China are currently at $1,950-$1,980/t CFR Mundra, India.

Finished longs: Indicative levels

In the finished longs segment, price indications for 304 black round bars were heard at INR 177,000-INR 179,000/t, exw-Delhi. Additionally, price levels for SS 304 bright bars were heard at INR 199,000-INR 201,000/t ex-Delhi.

Indicative offers for SS 304 hexagon stood at INR 211,000-INR 212,000/t and SS 304 angles are at INR 204,000-INR 205,000/t, both ex-Delhi.

Meanwhile, offers for 316-grade black round bars were heard at INR 289,000-INR 291,000/t ex-Delhi.

China market overview

During the week, China's domestic stainless steel prices have gained w-o-w. Prices of 304 grade CRC reached RMB 14,700/t ($2,027/t) ex-works. FOB prices of 304 grade CRC stood at $2,102/t.

Raw materials scenario

Ferro molybdenum: Ferro molybdenum prices in India increased w-o-w by INR 59,000/t ($708/t) in comparison with the previous assessment on 22 May. Prices increased as raw material prices moved up due to limited supplies globally.

Indian ferro molybdenum prices were assessed at INR 2,740,000/t ($32,888/t) exw-Nagpur on a 60% pro rata basis, as assessed by BigMint on 29 May.

Ferro chrome: Indian ferro-chrome prices (HC, FeCr60%) stood at INR 106,000/t exw-Jajpur. Prices witnessed a marginal drop of INR 100/t w-o-w.

Global updates

• Brazil to impose anti-dumping duties on Chinese SS CRC
  
  

Brazil has decided to impose anti-dumping duties on cold-rolled stainless steel products from China, targeting grades 200 series and 410 series. All Chinese exporters face a duty of $629.44/t. This action follows an anti-circumvention review initiated last October due to alleged evasion of existing duties through product modifications, with 200 and 410 series steel replacing 304 and 430 grades.

• Taiwan SS prices expected to increase in June
  
  

Taiwan's stainless steel mills are expected to announce June rates soon. Stable LME nickel prices, alongside Indonesia Tsingshan Stainless's price hike and recovering export orders, suggest six consecutive price increases. YUSCO's switch to individual price negotiations since December 2023 has closely tied domestic prices to upstream mills. However, slow demand recovery leads to conservative purchases, creating a gap between circulation prices and actual increases.

Outlook

Current market conditions suggest that stainless steel prices are likely to remain stable with minor fluctuations in the near term. Buyers expect a potential price drop following the elections. However, the increased volatility in LME nickel prices and ongoing external economic and political uncertainties keep the outlook unpredictable.