India: Stainless steel prices hold steady w-o-w despite slide in LME nickel

India's stainless steel prices, including domestic finished flats, and domestic and imported scrap, maintained stability w-o-w despite declining LME nickel prices.

BigMint's benchmark assessments for stainless steel (304 series) hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices were INR 183,000/tonne (t) ex-Mumbai, while domestic 304-grade scrap was priced at INR 121,000/t ex-works Delhi.

LME nickel prices drop as anticipated

At the time of reporting, the three-month LME nickel prices were at $16,270/t, marking a 4.2% decrease from the previous week's $16,980/t. Meanwhile, nickel stocks in LME-registered warehouses rose w-o-w, reaching 119,292 t, up from 116,616 t in the previous week.

Notably, LME nickel prices have corrected as expected by market participants, reflecting the rising inventory levels. Inventories have increased by approximately 2.3% w-o-w, aligning with the decline in LME nickel prices.

In July 2024, Indonesia, the world's leading nickel producer, exported about 954,000 t of nickel, reinforcing its top position in the global market. China was the largest importer, taking nearly 877,000 t, or 91.88% of the total. India and Japan imported 44,000 t and 6,800 t, respectively. From January to July 2024, Indonesia's total nickel exports amounted to around 6.43 mnt.

Domestic finished flat prices firm

In the finished flat segment, prices saw a marginal gain this week. As per BigMint's assessment, 304 HRC prices stood at INR 182,000-184,000/t, while the SS316 HRC was at INR 312,000-314,000/t ex-Mumbai.

A source said, " There is a shortage of HRCs in the market, whereas CRCs are plentiful due to significant imports from Vietnamese mills. Imports from other countries are restricted either by the lack of BIS certification or pricing issues, as with POSCO Korea. Following a drop in India's leading coil manufacturer's exports last quarter, the domestic market now has a sufficient supply of CRCs. Demand seems stable, according to current sales data, but market prices have remained relatively steady."

Domestic finished longs' (AOD grade) indicative levels

In the finished longs segment, 304L (100-130 mm) black round bars were priced at INR 200,000-202,000/t exw-Mumbai, while SS 304 bright bars were at INR 218,000-220,000/t exw-Mumbai. SS 316L black round bars were offered at INR 310,000-312,000/t exw-Mumbai, and SS 316L bright bars were priced at INR 320,000-335,000/t exw-Mumbai.

A mill source informed BigMint, " Currently, the demand for finished long products of stainless steel is weak. However, there is a slight shortage of 316L bright material. "

Scrap market insights

This week, in the domestic scrap market, prices of the 304 scrap stood stable at INR 121,000/t ex-Delhi NCR, on cash payment terms. Sources indicated that major mills are purchasing 304 scrap at approximately INR 124,000-126,000/t delivered (DAP), with a credit period of 30-45 days.

Similarly, imported scrap prices also stood steady w-o-w. However, higher offer levels have deterred mills from purchasing imported material. Additionally, there were minor bid-offer disparities in the market.

BigMint's benchmark assessment for imported SS 304-grade scrap stood at $1,450/t CFR Mundra. Meanwhile, suppliers are quoting SS 304 scrap at $1,470-$1,490/t, while buyers' bids range was slightly lower at $1,420-$1,430/t. The 316-grade scrap was priced at $2,650/t CFR Mundra, with some suppliers offering it at $2,660-$2,680/t. Buyers' bids are currently at around $2,620-$2,630/t.

A trade source said, "Imported materials are not viable for mills, so they are now focusing aggressively on domestic purchases."