India: Stainless steel prices hold steady w-o-w amid stability in LME nickel prices

In India, finished stainless steel prices have remained largely stable this week amid stability in LME nickel prices and weak buying interest. Imported as well as domestic scrap prices remained steady this weak.

India's stainless steel (304 series) HRC prices stood at INR 178,000/t ex-Mumbai and domestic 304-grade scrap, at INR 119,500/t ex-works Delhi, BigMint's assessment reveals.

At the time of reporting, nickel prices on the LME saw a marginal drop of $125/t w-o-w. Nickel prices for 3-month delivery on LME fell by 0.5%, to $17,320/t, which was previously hovering at around $17,200/t levels. Meanwhile, nickel stocks on LME stood at 95,502 t.

Scrap market

In the local market, prices of 304 scrap were assessed at INR 119,000-120,000/t ex-Delhi NCR, with cash payment terms. Sources indicated that key mills are acquiring 304 scrap for around INR 121,000-122,000/t DAP, with a credit period of 45 days.

A trader informed BigMint, "Despite lower prices, there is limited buying interest in India's domestic scrap market. Mills are prioritising local scrap due to high expenses associated with imported scrap from Southeast Asia. Concerns about port congestion and rising freight costs are exacerbating the problem. Notably, Southeast Asia accounts for about 45% of India's stainless steel scrap supply."

Currently, freight rates from the Southeast Asian region to India's West Coast stands at $200/t or $4,000/20-ft container.

BigMint's assessment indicates prices of 304-grade scrap remaining firm at $1,450/t CFR Mundra. Meanwhile, suppliers are pricing SS 304 scrap at $1,460-$1,480/t, while buyers are bidding lower at $1,410-$1,430/t, thereby leading to a disparity of $50-$60/t.

The 316-grade scrap stands at $2,650/t CFR Mundra. Meanwhile, a few suppliers were heard offering 316-grade scrap at $2,680/t. However, buyers' bids were in the range of $2,620-$2,630/t.

Meanwhile, offers of SS 201 scrap stood at $780-$800/t, and SS 430 at $660-$680/t CFR Mundra.

Finished flat

304 HRC prices stood largely stable w-o-w at INR 178,000/t while prices of SS 316 HRC stood at INR 309,000/t ex-Mumbai.

A source said, " Transactions are expected to stay subdued in the coming month due to sluggish market conditions attributed to subdued demand and limited transactions from the downstream sectors."

Finished longs: indicative levels

In the finished longs segment, price indications for 304 black round bars were heard at INR 169,000-INR 171,000/t exw-Delhi. Additionally, price levels for SS 304 bright bars were heard at INR 190,000-INR 192,000/t ex-Delhi.

Indicative offers of SS 304 hexagon stood at INR 201,000-INR 203,000/t, while SS 304 angles are at INR 197,000-INR 199,000/t, both ex-Delhi.

China market overview

During the week, China's domestic stainless steel prices edged down w-o-w. Prices of 304 grade CRC reached RMB 14,600/t ($2,007/t) ex-works. FOB prices of 304 grade CRC stood at $2,073/t.

Raw materials scenario

Ferro molybdenum: In comparison to the previous assessment on 26 June, Indian ferro molybdenum prices remained almost stable with a marginal drop of INR 35,000/t ($419/t) w-o-w. Prices did not experience any major change as the market remained stable.

According to BigMint's assessment on 3 July, Indian ferro molybdenum prices were at INR 2,712,000/t ($32,462/t) exw-Nagpur on a 60% pro rata basis.

Ferro chrome: Indian ferro-chrome prices (HC, FeCr60%) stood at INR 111,100/t exw-Jajpur, down by INR 900/t w-o-w.

Global updates

Japan imports surge in May

According to Japan's Ministry of Finance, May saw imports of cold-rolled stainless steel sheets rising by 62.8% y-o-y to 18,000 t. Chinese imports surged 73.9% to 7,900 t, nearing a record high. Taiwan followed with nearly 6,000 t, while hot-rolled stainless steel plates increased by 47.9% to about 5,900 t.

Turkiye launches stainless steel AD investigation

The Turkish Ministry of Commerce announced an anti-dumping investigation initiated by domestic manufacturers Posco Assan TST Celik and Trinox Metal into cold-rolled stainless flat steel from China and Indonesia. The investigation covers various cold-rolled stainless steel products under specified HS codes, from 1 January 2021 to 31 December 31 2023.

Outlook

Stainless steel prices are expected to remain range-bound or they may even witness a marginal decrease driven by the downward trend in LME nickel prices as well as subdued buying interest.