India's stainless steel prices decline as LME nickel prices fall and Fiscal year closes
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BigMint's assessment revealed that prices of imported 304 scrap have seen a correction by $10/tonne (t) and are currently hovering at around $1,360/t. In the finish segment, prices have seen a drop compared to the previous week.
BigMint's assessment for 304 HRC stood at INR 173,000/t, and the price of domestic 304-grade scrap is at INR 114,000/t ex-works in Delhi.
Stainless steel prices are presently facing downward pressure, attributed to both the decrease in LME nickel prices and the low demand due to the near conclusion of the fiscal year.
The stressed prices in the finish segment were mainly linked to a decline in nickel prices on the LME, dropping by $860/t w-o-w. Nickel prices for 3-month delivery on the LME saw a 5% decrease, reaching $16,585/t. Notably, nickel stocks in LME warehouses stand at 77,076 t.
Additionally, LME data indicated a recent rebound in London's nickel stocks, hitting a two-year high of 77,844 t on 22 March before slightly decreasing to 77,076 t this week.
Scrap market insights
In the domestic scrap market, with 304 scrap priced between INR 113,000 to INR 115,000/t, and 316-grade scrap at approximately INR 205,000/t ex-Delhi, mostly stable.
During this week, there has been a slight decrease in the offers for imported scrap, with prices dropping by $10/t. Suppliers are now quoting prices for 304-grade scrap at $1,350-1,370/t. Meanwhile, prices of 316-grade scrap have mostly stayed stable at $2,550/t, CFR Mundra. Despite this, demand and buying interest have remained relatively subdued in the market.
A trade source mentioned that the current purchasing trend in the Indian market is subdued due to uncertainties preceding the elections. There is an expectation that the market might see a resurgence in the upcoming months, potentially around mid-April or May.
Finished segment
This week, in the finish market, prices witnessed a drop of up to INR 5,000/t. According to BigMint's assessment, 304 HRC priced at INR 173,000/t, down by INR 5,000/t and 316 HRC is at INR 302,000/t, down by INR 3,000/t.
China market overview
During the week, China's domestic stainless steel market experienced a decrease. Prices of 304 grade CRC reached RMB 14,700/t ($2,033/t), marking a drop of RMB 300/t ($41/t), ex-works in China. FOB prices of 304 grade CRC stood at $2,078/t, down $15/t.
According to the provisional data maintained by BigMint, stainless steel production in February 2024 fell by 7% compared to the previous month, reaching 2.55 mnt from 2.74 mnt. Among the breakdown, production of the 200 series amounted to 0.74 mnt, the 300 series reached 1.32 mnt, and the 400 series stood at 0.49 mnt.
Raw materials scenario
Ferro molybdenum: India's ferro molybdenum prices remained stable w-o-w, with a slight decrease of INR 1,000/t ($12/t) from the prior assessment on 20 March. Prices stayed the same due to stable worldwide prices, particularly in China, and a lack of inquiries in the domestic market.
As per BigMint's assessment on 27 March, Indian ferro molybdenum prices stood at INR 2,354,000/t ($28,238/t) exw-Nagpur on a 60% pro-rata basis.
Ferro chrome: Indian ferro-chrome prices (HCFeCr60%) stood at INR 114,000/t exw-Jajpur. Prices witnessed a marginal decline of INR 1,000/t compared to the previous week, reflecting volatile market dynamics.
Outlook
Further declines in domestic market prices are expected, driven by several factors, including the near conclusion of the financial year, uncertainties surrounding the upcoming elections, and potential impacts from the contraction of nickel LME prices on final pricing.
