India: Stainless steel flats prices remain steady in sluggish market post-Diwali

• Flats prices stable as market struggles to regain momentum
  
  
• India's major coil maker cuts prices on weak demand
  
  
• LME nickel prices inch up w-o-w
  
  

India's domestic stainless steel finished flats prices stayed range-bound, with a slight dip seen over the week, driven by need-based buying and continued weak demand. Transactions remained slow, as the market has not yet fully recovered from the Diwali festivities and the holiday mood.

Aligning with the weak demand, India's leading stainless steel coil manufacturer has lowered prices for 300-series coils, sources told BigMint. This price reduction, effective November 6, 2024, marks the company's first adjustment this month. Prices for 316L and 304-grade hot-rolled coils (HRCs) were cut by INR 2,000/t ($23/t), while cold-rolled coils (CRCs) for these grades saw a decrease of INR 3,000/t ($35/t).

BigMint's benchmark assessments for stainless steel (304 series) HRC stood at INR 180,000/tonne (t) ex-Mumbai.

LME nickel prices gain despite rising stocks

At the time of reporting, three-month LME nickel prices were at $16,135/t, marking a 1% increase from the previous week's $15,840/t. Meanwhile, nickel stocks in LME-registered warehouses rose 1% w-o-w to 147,084 t from 146,154 t the previous week.

In a recent development, Julian Ambassadur Shiddiq, Director of Mining and Coal Development at Indonesia's Ministry of Energy, warned that the country's nickel reserves could be depleted within 4-5 years due to insufficient extraction capacity. Despite strong demand, Indonesia struggles to issue enough mining licenses, leading smelters to import nickel from the Philippines.

Domestic finished flats prices steady

In the domestic finished flats segment, prices were largely stable this week. According to BigMint's assessment, 304 HRC prices stood at INR 179,000-181,000/t, while SS316 HRC was at INR 321,000-323,000/t ex-Mumbai.

Suppliers quoted INR 190,000-192,000/t for 304 cold-rolled coils (CRCs) and INR 333,000-334,000/t for 316 CRCs, both ex-Mumbai. In contrast, bids for 304 CRCs were as low as INR 188,000-190,000/t, while offers for 316 CRCs touched INR 330,000-332,000/t, indicating a decrease in buying interest.

A source stated, "It seems like the market is still in holiday mode with no activity this week. Trading and operations are expected to pick up again starting Monday, and we are also facing labour challenges."

In recent times, India has been importing SS 304 and 316 cold-rolled coils (CRCs) from countries like Vietnam and China, where the landed cost is INR 8,000-10,000/t lower than domestically produced material. However, the gap between domestic and imported stainless steel prices has narrowed in the last few months.

A key reason for this price advantage is the easier access to raw materials in these countries. Additionally, the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with Vietnam has played a significant role in driving the increase in imports from Vietnam in particular.

Recent indicative landed prices from Vietnam to India were reported at INR 321,000-322,000/t for SS 316 CRC and INR 184,000-185,000/t for SS 304 CRC.

Finished longs prices stable

In the finished longs segment (AOD grade), prices were stable, with 304L (up to 100 mm) black round bars priced at INR 185,000-187,000/t exw-Mumbai, while SS 316L black round bars were being offered at INR 295,000-287,000/t exw-Mumbai.

Indicative levels for SS 304L (up to 100 mm) bright bars were at INR 197,000-200,000/t, while SS 316L bright bars were at INR 304,000-306,000/t, ex-Mumbai.

SS 304 wire rods (5-16 mm) in Mumbai were reported at INR 165,000-167,000/t.

Semi-finished prices remain unchanged

Indicative prices for stainless steel semis were at similar levels to last week: SS 304 billets (15 x 15) were priced at INR 166,000-168,000/t ex-Ghaziabad for AOD and INR 145,000-147,000/t for the induction grade.

SS 304 ingots stood at INR 123,000-125,000/t, while SS 316 was at INR 220,000-222,000/t, both ex-Delhi.

Meanwhile, the prices of imported SS 304 ingots and billets from Vietnam have seen a slight increase, primarily due to a small rise in freight rates. The price for SS 304 ingots was reported at $1,550-1,570/t, while SS 304 billets were priced at $1,720-1,740/t CFR Mundra.

Freight charges from Vietnam to Mundra ranged between $900 and $1,100 per 20-foot container.

Chinese market steady

The stainless steel market remained sluggish this week, with low transaction volumes. The downstream 201 stainless steel market saw demand-based purchasing, but increased spot supply, following the resumption of production by South China's mills, led to a decline in transaction prices. Meanwhile, supply for 430 stainless steel tightened due to a production halt at a North China plant. In the short term, spot prices are expected to remain stable, with attention on macroeconomic factors like the U.S. election impacting the metals sector.

In China, domestic stainless steel prices inched down w-o-w. Prices of 304-grade CRCs touched RMB 14,450/t ($2,012/t) exw, while FOB prices of 304-grade CRCs were at $2,081/t.

Raw materials scenario

Ferro molybdenum: India ferro molybdenum prices inched up by INR 12,500/tonne (t) ($148/t) w-o-w to INR 2,600,000/t ($30,831/t) exw on 6 November. Prices fluctuated within a narrow range.

Ferro chrome: Indian ferro chrome prices (HC, FeCr60%) stood at INR 110,000/t exw-Jajpur, largely stable w-o-w.

Outlook

Stainless steel prices are expected to see a slight decline in the near term, driven by falling LME nickel prices. Domestic trading activity is anticipated to remain subdued, with market participants expecting low to moderate levels of engagement.