India: Stainless steel flats hold steady w-o-w, longs see modest decline as year-end nears

• Weak demand leads to largely stable pricing
  
  
• Market expected to improve post-New Year
  
  

Indian finished stainless steel prices remained range-bound w-o-w, driven by weak sentiment and limited buying activity. Amid sluggish demand, flats prices were firm w-o-w, while longs tags experienced a slight decline. Additionally, LME nickel prices saw a decrease over the week.

A trader informed BigMint, "The overall demand for finished stainless steel remains sluggish, with no signs of improvement expected this month. Significant movement in the market is expected post-New Year."

LME nickel prices dip w-o-w

At the time of reporting, three-month LME nickel prices were at $15,495/tonne (t), marking a 1.5% decrease from the previous week's $15,735/t. Meanwhile, nickel stocks in LME-registered warehouses were down 2% w-o-w to 161,718 t from 165,810 t last week.

As of mid-December, nickel ore prices remained stable, indicating a balanced supply and demand situation. However, the nickel pig iron (NPI) market saw a slight dip. NPI prices (FOB) decreased by $0.4 w-o-w to $113.5/t. This minor drop reflects fluctuations in demand or adjustments in inventory levels within the market.

Domestic finished flats steady w-o-w

In the domestic finished flats segment, prices remained stable for the week. According to BigMint's assessment, SS316 HRCs were at INR 322,000-324,000/t ex-Mumbai.

A source informed, "Demand for finished materials is slow, and the domestic market remains quiet. Overall, market conditions are stable, with many participants expecting a possible increase in demand, which could drive up activity and lead to price adjustments."

BigMint's benchmark assessments for stainless steel (304 series) hot-rolled coils (HRCs) showed w-o-w stability at INR 178,000/t ex-Mumbai.

A mill source informed BigMint, "Inventory levels are average or slightly above average, but the lack of demand is limiting movement."

Commenting on the Indian government's recent proposal to impose safeguard duties of 25% on certain steel imports, the source stated, "In this context, imposing a safeguard duty would likely be detrimental to the market. Given the current dynamics, such a move could lead to substantial losses for the stainless steel sector. This is particularly concerning considering India's ongoing imports of materials such as slabs and coils from China, which would be directly impacted by any safeguard measures."

Finished longs drop w-o-w

BigMint's benchmark assessment for SS 304L (25-100 mm) black round bars was at INR 178,000/t ex-Mumbai, down INR 1,500/t w-o-w.

Meanwhile, SS 316L black round bars stood at INR 289,000-291,000/t ex-Mumbai. Prices of SS 316L bright bars stood at INR 308,000-310,000/t ex-Mumbai, down by INR 1,000/t w-o-w.

SS 304 wire rods (5-16 mm) in Mumbai were recorded at INR 158,000-160,000/t.

A trader source informed, "The current demand for longs products is weak, but the market is expected to improve after the Budget, particularly if new infrastructure projects are initiated, which could drive increased demand for longs products."

Chinese prices edge down

In China, domestic prices of stainless steel 304-grade cold-rolled coils (CRCs) stood at RMB 13,800/t ($1,894/t) exw, down by RMB 50/t ($6/t) w-o-w, while FOB tags were at $1,974/t.

Global updates

Taiwan's stainless steel imports rise, exports fall

Taiwan's imports of 300 series stainless steel HRCs rose to 60,598 t in November, up 16% from October, marking the largest monthly volume since July. Import prices also increased for the second consecutive month, nearing TWD 60,000/t ($1,844/t). Exports dropped to 132 t in November, a 64% decrease, while export prices surged by over TWD 8,200/t ($252/t) from October.

Turkey's stainless steel plate imports surge 79% y-o-y

Turkey's stainless steel plate imports reached approximately 72,000 t in October, marking a 79% y-o-y increase. Imports from China totalled 32,500 t, doubling from the previous year. Indonesia supplied 15,000 t, up 66% y-o-y, while South Korea contributed 14,500 t, a threefold increase compared to the same period last year, according to the Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK).

Raw materials scenario

Ferro molybdenum: Indian ferro molybdenum prices were largely stable w-o-w, witnessing a marginal drop of INR 7,000/t ($82/t) amid subdued demand.

As per BigMint's 18 December 2024 assessment, prices were at around INR 2,537,000/t ($29,873/t) exw-India (60% pro-rata basis). This week, 19 t were traded, within INR 2,554,000-2,545,000/t ($30,073-29,967/t) exw.

Ferro chrome: Indian ferro chrome prices (HC, FeCr60%) stood at INR 105,000/t exw-Jajpur, down by INR 1,000/t w-o-w.

Additionally, Vedanta-Ferro Alloys Corporation (FACOR) has scheduled an auction for high-carbon (HC) ferro chrome (0-150 mm) on 20 Dec'24. At the previous auction on 2 Dec, the larger lot of 10-150 mm achieved an H1 price of INR 105,500/t exw.

OMC slashed its base price of chrome ore (Cr2O3: 42-54%; 25,800 t offered) from South Kaliapani and Sukrangi mines by 6% m-o-m for the Dec'24 auction, tracking a 3% m-o-m dip in ferro chrome prices

Outlook

In the short term, prices are likely to see a slight correction, as demand usually weakens toward the year-end. However, market participants expect demand to pick up after January 2025.