India: South African portside prices unchanged w-o-w

• RBCT stocks up, but India demand muted
  
  
• Sponge iron prices pick up by INR 1,000/t
  
  

BigMint's latest assessment shows that portside prices of South African thermal coal remained mostly stable w-o-w. RB2 (5500 GAR) remained set at INR 9,500 per tonne (t), while RB3 was at INR 7,600/t, ex-Gangavaram. Prices remained unchanged despite the rise in sponge prices. Market participants stated that prices may rally soon. Offers from some sellers did pick up during the week. But, buyers wondered whether these would sustain and thus have entered into a wait-and-watch mode.

Coal stocks at RBCT were heard to be picking up although demand remained muted from major importing countries such as India. Market participants were expecting a rise in demand from sponge iron units post-Diwali. However, this trend is yet to materialise.

Thermal or non-coking coal stocks at Indian ports remained largely stable this week, with a marginal dip of 0.28%. Stocks settled at 12.43 million tonnes (mnt) in week 44, compared to 12.46 mnt in week 43, according to BigMint's data.

Market overview

• RB3 NAR prices stable w-o-w: RB3 (4800 NAR) offers remained unchanged w-o-w at $70/t FOB. RB2 (5500 NAR) prices also showed stability w-o-w at $89.5/t FOB.
  
  
• India's domestic coal prices stable w-o-w: BigMint's latest assessment shows prices for 4500 GCV coal steady at INR 5,900/t exw-Bilaspur, with 5000 GCV holding at INR 7,300/t. Post-Diwali, market activity remains sluggish with minimal demand and very limited buying. Experts feel prices may see an uptick once auctions resume, and they expect buying interest to resume in the coming weeks.
  
  
• Sponge iron prices pick up: Sponge iron (P-DRI) prices increased by INR 1,000/t w-o-w to INR 27,000/t exw-Raipur on 8 November.
  
  
• South African thermal coal exports up in Oct: South African non-coking (thermal) coal export shipments in October 2024 totalled 6.23 mnt, reflecting a 21% increase from 5.14 mnt in September 2024. Y-o-Y, exports were up 47%, compared to 4.23 mnt in October 2023.
  
  

Outlook

South African thermal coal prices in India are expected to increase, despite demand remaining muted because sponge iron prices are seen rising.