India: South African portside coal prices stable w-o-w, offers may increase in short term

• Thermal coal buying subdued amid rainy season
  
  
• Indian domestic coal prices remain supported
  
  

BigMint's assessment indicated that portside prices of South African thermal coal remained more or less stable this week, inching down by INR 50/t. RB2 (5500 GAR) and RB3 (4800 GAR) prices were assessed at INR 9,350/t and INR 7,500/t ex-Gangavaram, respectively.

However, as of today, some portside sellers were heard to have raised their offer levels by INR 100-200/t as a result of rise in steel market fundamentals. Thermal coal buying activities remain subdued during the week. Rainfall disturbed the logistics and material offtake from the ports. Most of the buyers were awaiting clarity in prices.

Non-coking or thermal coal stocks at Indian ports were almost unchanged at 13.11 million tonnes (mnt) in week 38 of calendar year 2024 (CY'24) from 13.10 mnt in week 37, as per data compiled by BigMint.

Deals captured by BigMint:

• A deal for 8,000 tonnes (t) of RB2 was heard to be concluded at Gopalpur Port at INR 9,200/t.
  
  
• A 6000-t deal of RB2 was heard done at INR 9,500/t, Kandla Port.
  
  
• A deal of 5000 t in RB2 was done at Mangalore Port at INR 8,800/t, ex-port.
  
  

Market overview

• RB3 prices edge down w-o-w:Prices of RB3 (4800 NAR) declined by $1/t to $68/t w-o-w FOB. RB2 (5500 NAR) prices moved down slightly to $88/t FOB.
  
  
• India's domestic coal supported on tight availability: India's domestic coal prices remained steady this week, due to lower availability in the market. BigMint's assessment for 4500 GCV coal held firm at INR 5,700/t exw-Bilaspur, while 5000 GCV coal was unchanged at INR 6,600/t. Prices may fluctuate next week as new auctions are expected, said sources.
  
  
• Sponge iron prices pick up w-o-w: Sponge iron (P-DRI) prices rose by INR 1,300/t to INR 26,900/t w-o-w exw-Raipur on 27 September.
  
  

Outlook

South African coal prices are expected to remain range-bound on low demand. However, an increase in indexed prices of higher grades and also in sponge iron may push up South African coal prices. Nonetheless, stocks at ports are going to continuously exert downward pressure on prices.