India: Silico manganese prices stay range-bound amid dip in billet prices

• Global buyers cautious amid elevated offers
  
  
• Indian producers cut output to offset surplus
  
  

Indian silico manganese prices were largely stable after inching down early this week amid a slowdown in domestic steel prices. Minimal trade was observed, with manufacturers across different regions reducing production to offset rising input costs and surplus supplies.

According to BigMint's assessments on October 15, 2024, domestic prices for grade 60-14 silico manganese remained relatively stable, ranging between INR 69,200-69,600/t ($823-$828/t) exw. While a few smelters in Raipur offered slightly higher prices at INR 70,000-70,500/t ($832-$839/t) exw, limited deals were concluded at this level. The majority of bulk deals were transacted at prices below this range.

The premium grade (60-15) silico manganese witnessed a slight increase in prices to INR 72,000-72,500/t ($857-$863/t) exw in both Durgapur and Raipur.

Confirmed deals (as per BigMint)

Market overview

Regional variations drive domestic price dynamics: The domestic market has been characterised by a complex interplay of competitive dynamics and regional variations. Durgapur, a primarily export-oriented cluster, has exerted downward pressure overall due to its competitive pricing strategy. Civil unrest in Bangladesh and limited inquiries from the MENA region due to rising geopolitical tensions, both major export destinations, have further impacted Durgapur's market, leading to a surplus supply within the domestic segment and consequent price declines.

Conversely, Raipur, another significant production hub, has experienced a tighter supply environment due to reduced capacity utilisation and a focus on fulfilling existing orders. This has resulted in higher prices and a more stable market.

Global manganese ore prices under pressure: Australia's Jupiter Mines and Gabon's Eramet Comilog have reduced prices for October 2024 shipments to China. Jupiter's high-grade Mn36.5% South African lump is down by $0.2/dmtu to $3.7/dmtu, while Eramet cut Mn44.5% Gabonese lump and Mn43% chips by $1.00/dmtu. These cuts reflect global market uncertainty and cautious pricing approaches.

Indian steel prices inch down w-o-w: The Indian domestic steel market witnessed a w-o-w constant in prices amid modest demand and limited inquiries for bulk bookings. BigMint's daily steel billet index closed at INR 41,500/t exw-Raipur on 16 October 2024, a w-o-w inching down by INR 200/t. Despite the fluctuating prices, caution prevails, with buyers hesitant to commit to large-scale purchases.

Outlook

Domestic silico manganese prices are expected to remain relatively stable in the near term, despite conflicting market forces. Constrained domestic supply and limited domestic demand, coupled with fluctuating steel prices, could exert upward pressure on prices. However, declining demand for manganese alloys, driven by muted overseas interest, may counter-balance this upward trend.