India: Silico manganese prices stable post-marginal hikes

• Supply-demand dynamics witness mixed trends
  
  
• Steel prices rise, but market remains cautious
  
  

Silico manganese prices were largely unchanged after witnessing a marginal hike early this week amid a slowdown in domestic demand. Minimal trade was observed, with manufacturers across different regions reducing production to offset rising input costs.

According to BigMint's assessments on 24 September 2024, domestic prices of grade 60-14 silico manganese were range-bound w-o-w at INR 65,200-66,000/tonne (t) ($786-$792/t) exw, though few smelters in Raipur made offers at INR 66,500-67,000/t ($780-$790/t) exw.

Confirmed deals (as per BigMint)

Factors impacting silico manganese prices

Contrasting supply-demand dynamics in major producing regions: Competitive pricing from smelters in Durgapur, which is primarily an export-oriented cluster, has exerted downward pressure on the overall market. With Bangladesh, a major export destination for silico manganese from Durgapur, witnessing civil unrest, consumption has reduced by around 5,000-7,000 t m-o-m. This has resulted in surplus supply within the domestic market and downward pressure on prices.

Conversely, Raipur, another significant production hub, has been operating at reduced capacity. Certain plants have stayed away from the retail market, instead, focusing on fulfilling older bookings. The resulting tight supply has led to elevated prices and a range-bound environment.

Bearish global market weighs on domestic prices: The downtrend in global silico manganese prices and overall bearish sentiments have influenced the domestic market as well. Due to a supply-demand stalemate, trades in silico manganese in both the local and export markets were constrained. Domestic silico manganese prices were range-bound due to limited transactions at higher offers.

Manganese ore prices remain under pressure: Australia's Jupiter Mines Limited, operator of the Tshipi Borwa manganese mine in the southern Kalahari manganese field, has set the CIF China price of its high-grade Mn36.5% South African semi-carbonate lump at $3.7/dry metric tonne unit (dmtu) for October 2024 shipments, a $0.2/dmtu m-o-m decrease from its September 2024 shipment prices.

Indian steel prices climb up: The Indian domestic steel market witnessed a w-o-w uptick in prices amid moderate demand and limited inquiries for bulk bookings.

BigMint's daily steel billet index closed at INR 40,000/t exw-Raipur on 25 September 2024, a w-o-w increase of INR 2,000/t. Despite the rise in prices, caution prevails, with buyers hesitant to commit to large-scale purchases.

Outlook

The domestic silico manganese market may face short-term price volatility due to rising steel prices. However, declining manganese alloys demand, driven by muted overseas interest, could counter-balance this upward pressure.