India's pet coke production declines 4%, consumption falls 7% in Aug'24

• India's pet coke demand expected to rise post-monsoon on new infra projects
  
  
• Cement industry, largest pet coke consumer, likely to rebound from Oct'24
  
  

India's petroleum coke (pet coke) production in August 2024 stood at 1.24 million tonnes (mnt), registering a 4.1% m-o-m decline from 1.30 mnt in July 2024. On a y-o-y basis, production dipped by 0.3%, compared to 1.25 mnt in August 2023. Cumulatively, during the April-August 2024 period, pet coke production was 6.23 mnt, reflecting a 2.3% y-o-y drop from 6.38 mnt in the corresponding period last year.

The consumption of pet coke in August 2024 was 1.62 mnt, reflecting a decline of 6.6% m-o-m from 1.73 mnt in July 2024. On a y-o-y basis, consumption decreased by 8.2% compared to 1.76 mnt in August 2023. However, on a cumulative basis, from April to August 2024, total pet coke consumption stood at 8.40 mnt, showing moderate growth of 2.4% y-o-y over the 8.21 mnt consumed during the same period last year.

Notably, the import of raw petroleum coke (RPC) for calciners is expected to rise from 1.4 mnt in FY'24 to 1.9 mnt from FY'25, which will likely boost overall pet coke consumption. Currently, imports are controlled by the Directorate General of Foreign Trade (DGFT), with specific industries such as cement, lime kiln, calcium carbide, and gasification allowed to import pet coke. The cement industry, the largest consumer, is expected to see subdued demand during the monsoon but will likely experience a rebound starting October 2024, driven by increased infrastructure activity.

India's pet coke production in FY'24 reached 15.05 mnt, a 2.2% y-o-y decline from 15.39 mnt in FY'23. Demand is expected to rise post-monsoon, driven by infrastructure projects, where pet coke remains a key fuel, especially for the cement industry. With overall refinery margins and product-mix planning playing a significant role, pet coke production remains influenced by high-value products such as diesel, petrol, and jet fuel.

RIL rolls over pet coke prices in Sep'24

Reliance Industries Limited (RIL) has kept its pet coke prices for September 2024 unchanged m-o-m at INR 12,663/tonne (t). However, the current prices are approximately 12% lower compared to the same month last year. RIL releases only a limited quantity of pet coke into the market, as a significant portion is utilised in their gasification unit.

Outlook

Infrastructure activities across the country have been impacted by the monsoon, particularly in the cement sector, which is a key consumer of pet coke. As a result, pet coke demand is expected to stay low throughout the monsoon season, with a gradual recovery starting from October 2024. Subsequently, demand is expected to rise steadily and remain strong through June 2025.