India's bulk HRC imports rise 30% y-o-y in CY'24

India's bulk hot-rolled coil (HRC) imports for the calendar year (CY) 2024 totalled 6.285 million tonnes (mnt), a significant 30% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase from 4.848 mnt in CY'23, according to data from BigMint. The growing reliance on imports, particularly from Free Trade Agreement (FTA) countries like South Korea and Japan benefiting from preferential tariffs, has become a major concern for the domestic steel industry.

South Korea, China, and Japan were the top three exporters of bulk HRC to India in CY'24, with volumes of 2.262 mnt, 1.554 mnt, and 1.394 mnt, respectively. Notably, imports from China and Japan increased by 42% and 145%, respectively, y-o-y.

In December 2024, bulk HRC imports totalled 473,222 tonnes (t), a 17% m-o-m decline from 571,656 t in November. This decline was attributed to news of the Indian government planning to impose a 25% safeguard duty on imports of certain steel products, as well as the expiration of Chinese BIS license certification.

On the export front, India's bulk HRC export volumes declined 6% y-o-y in CY'24 to 3.22 mnt compared to 3.423 mnt in CY'23. Italy, Spain, and the UK were the top three importing countries, with volumes of 840,889 t, 830,714 t and 218,970 t, respectively.

Indian steel mills primarily focused on the domestic market in CY'24 due to better realisations and competitive offers from China and Japan in the Middle East and Vietnam. Furthermore, an anti-dumping investigation on Indian-origin HRC in Europe dampened the Indian steel export market.

However, in December, bulk HRC export volumes rose by 61% m-o-m to 254,930 t, as Indian mills resumed offering to the Middle East ahead of the New Year holidays. Despite this, volumes were down 35% y-o-y from 393,583 t in December 2023.

Outlook

India's bulk HRC imports are expected to remain sluggish in the near term due to the impending safeguard duty amid concerns over cheap imports. Exports, however, may see a temporary rebound as Indian mills have resumed offering to the Middle East. Overall, the domestic industry's concerns regarding stiff competition from foreign suppliers are likely to persist.