India: Rebar export shipments fall for 3rd consecutive month in Nov'21

India recorded a fall in its rebar export shipments for the third straight month in Nov'21. The volumes stood at 15,809 tonnes (t) in the previous month, a significant 64% m-o-m fall as against 44,372 t in Oct'21, as per customs data collated by SteelMint.

Taiwan largest importer

Taiwan emerged as the largest importer of rebars from India in Nov'21 with 2,806 t. Exports to the country witnessed a sharp rise of 98% against the corresponding period last year (CPLY).

Thailand acquired the second position among the top importers' list in Nov'21 with 1,808 t followed by the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bangladesh with 1,145 t and 268 t, respectively.

Factors that weighed down Indian rebar export bookings

• Absence of fresh overseas inquiries: The Indian rebar export market remained muted in November as the key importing nations held back from placing fresh inquiries. According to sources, buying interest was thin, owing to soaring Covid cases and lockdown restrictions in Singapore and South East Asia last month as well as enough rebar inventories in Hong Kong.
  
  
• Higher realisations in the domestic market: Indian mills had raised long steel prices sharply in Nov'21. The monthly average of SteelMint's BF-route rebar price assessment was recorded at INR 60,700/t ($796/t) exw-Mumbai, up by INR 3,000/t, m-o-m. Mills continued to raise domestic offers on the back of higher production costs. Thus, higher domestic finished long prices kept mills' price expectations on the higher side even for exports bookings. On the other hand, the monthly average of SteelMint's assessment of BF-route rebar exports stood at $756/t CFR HK in Oct'21.
  
  
• Volatility in Chinese rebar futures: Volatility in China's rebar futures affected the country's imports. According to data maintained with SteelMint, the Chinese SHFE rebar futures contract for Jan'22 delivery closed at RMB 4,138/t ($650/t) in mid-Nov'21, falling from RMB 4,646/t ($730/t) assessed in end-Oct'21.
  
  

Exports up y-o-y in Jan-Nov'21

Exports of the material from India in Jan-Nov'21 stood at 1.04 million tonnes (mn t), a y-o-y surge of 142% compared to 0.43 mn t in the same period last year.

Hong Kong was the largest importer of rebar with 550,883 t in the period under review followed by Singapore and Italy. Exports to Singapore stood at 222,361 t and to Italy, at 31,874 t.

Outlook

Cost-effective offers from the Middle East and South East Asian countries and limited export bookings may keep overseas sales of Indian rebar exports on the lower side in the short term.