India: Primary mills raise rebar prices by up to INR 1,000/t ($12/t), trade prices rise w-o-w
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Indian primary mills have raised rebar list prices by up to INR 1,000/tonne (t) ($12/t), sources informed BigMint. Post-revision, list prices hovered in the range of INR 53,500-54,000/t ($636-642/t) on a landed basis. It should be noted that mills have increased prices by up to INR 2,000/t ($24/t) earlier this month.
Following the price hike, trade-level blast furnace (BF) rebar prices increased w-o-w by INR 1,200/t ($14/t) to INR 53,600/t ($638/t) exy-Mumbai, as per BigMint's assessment on 11 October 2024. Prices are exclusive of GST at 18%. Buying interest in the trader's market improved slightly in some regions due to price hike by mills and material shortages from major PSU steelmakers, prompting higher quotes from participants.
In the project segment, prices hovered at INR 52,000-53,000/t ($619-631/t) FOR Mumbai.
Factors behind market dynamics:
1. IF-rebar prices exhibit mixed trend: IF rebar prices exhibit mixed trend across markets during the week. New bookings slowed at higher price points due to sufficient orders placed in the previous week. As a result, manufacturers maintained their list prices, leading to a price disparity between traders and mill levels, impacting market sentiment. With inventory levels down to 7-10 days across markets, mills faced no inventory pressure. IF-rebar trade prices remained flat w-o-w at INR 48,600/t ($578/t) exw-Mumbai. Participants are in a wait-and-watch mode, anticipating price clarity from mills after the Dussehra festival.
The price gap between BF-IF rebars stood around INR 4,000-4,500/t ($48-54/t) in the Mumbai market. Notably, IF rebars enjoy a 65-70% share of the market.
2. Iron ore prices rise, coking coal flat w-o-w: Prices of iron ore increased w-o-w, while coal prices remained flat on the week. BigMint's weekly Odisha iron ore fines Fe62% index rose by INR 300/t ($4/t) w-o-w to INR 4,800/t ($57/t) ex-mines as on 5 October, 2024. Iron ore prices increased due to higher offers from miners, reduced dispatches amid extended monsoon, and stronger demand from pellet, sponge, and steel markets. Global iron ore fines index rose before China's Golden Week. This has also influenced prices.
Australian premium hard coking coal (PHCC) prices remained flat w-o-w at $221/t CNF Paradip.
Outlook
Market participants expect prices to remain stable in the near-term amid the ongoing material shortages.