India: Prices of non-OEM grade ADC12 aluminium alloy ingots hold steady w-o-w

• Low auto demand, slow exports weigh on prices
  
  
• Post-Diwali demand recovery fails to materialise
  
  

Prices of aluminium ADC12 alloyed ingots remained relatively stable w-o-w across both northern and southern regions in India, largely due to ongoing sluggish demand in the automotive sector and a weakened export market.

BigMint's weekly assessments for ADC12 (non-OEM) grade stood at INR 200,000/tonne (t) in Delhi and INR 202,000/t in Chennai, firm w-o-w.

Although a post-festive season recovery was expected, demand is yet to see a significant uptick, which has kept prices under mild pressure. Market participants are watching for signs of improvement, but overall sentiment remains cautious.

Meanwhile, three-month London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminium prices declined by $70/t w-o-w to around $2,550/t.

Offers for imported ADC12 from the UAE are at $2,380-2,390/t CFR Mundra, though buying interest remains weak. China has been sourcing ADC12 from Thailand, with asking prices around $2,200/t, levels that are currently unviable for Indian exporters. Additionally, China has been actively importing aluminium and copper scrap due to stronger demand and relaxed import restrictions, with a significant portion of these shipments coming from Southeast Asian countries.

Imported raw material prices inch up w-o-w

Prices of the basic raw material for aluminium alloys, that is scrap, edged up, stable m-o-m. BigMint's assessment for tense scrap originating from the UAE was at $1,770/t. Meanwhile, zorba 95/5 from the UK was at $2,100/t, both CFR west coast, India.

The scrap to semi-finished spread was at INR 28,000-29,000/t.

China's silicon offers remain stable

According to BigMint's assessment, prices of China's 553-grade silicon remained steady w-o-w at $1,740/t CFR Mundra. Meanwhile, offers from the suppliers' side were at $1,760-1,770/t. However, bids were heard lower, at $1,710-1,720/t.

Export market remains subdued

The ADC12 export market has slowed considerably, with exports to Japan declining amid persistently weak demand in the region. This downturn reflects a broader trend, as other export markets for ADC12 are also experiencing limited activity.

Domestic scrap prices stable

In the domestic market, tense scrap prices remained steady w-o-w in both Delhi and Chennai, while other grades witnessed a downtrend. According to BigMint's assessment, domestic tense scrap stood at INR 172,000/t ex-Delhi NCR and INR 173,000/t ex-Chennai.

Outlook

A recovery in the ADC12 market is not expected until 2025, with most industry participants expecting subdued conditions to persist through the end of 2024. There is some optimism for improvement around March or April next year. Additionally, India's largest automaker may reduce prices in December 2024, which could further drive prices down.