India: Portside South African coal prices remain unchanged on limited buying interest

• RB3 prices edge down for the week
  
  
• Port side thermal coal stock falls w-o-w
  
  

BigMint's assessment indicated that portside prices of South African thermal coal remained largely unchanged for the week. Prices of RB2 (5500 GAR) were assessed at INR 9,500/tonne (t) while RB3 prices at INR 7,650/t, ex-Gangavaram.

South African thermal coal prices remained relatively stable during the week of October 17, as demand from Indian buyers softened. The cautious buying approach reflects concerns over the ongoing softness in India's domestic market. This week coal market appeared to be witnessing a cautious approach before restocking for the winters. Few inquiries were heard with the consistent bid offer disparity inhibited deals from happening.

Hike in other raw material prices like iron ore led the steel mills concern for the margins. Recently, Odisha based largest merchant miner hike its base price sharply over the limited supply in the market.

Indian demand was weak however, suppliers in South African coal found support from other buying nations in the mean time.

Thermal or non-coking coal stocks at Indian ports edged down by 1.57% to 12.47 million tonnes (mnt) in week 41 from 12.67 mnt in week 40, according to BigMint's data.

Market overview

• RB3 prices edge up: RB3 (4800 NAR) offers fell by $ 1/t w-o-w to $70/t FOB. Meanwhile, RB2 (5500 NAR) remained largely unchanged at $90/t FOB.
  
  
• Domestic coal prices edge up w-o-w: India's domestic coal prices saw a modest increase this week following a hike in bids at SECL's auction held yesterday. BigMint's assessment showed that 4500 GCV coal rose to INR 5,800/t exw-Bilaspur from INR 5,700/t w-o-w. Meanwhile, 5000 GCV coal increased to INR 6,900/t from INR 6,750/t.
  
  
• Sponge iron prices fall:Sponge iron (P-DRI) prices fell by INR 350/t w-o-w to INR 27,550/t exw-Raipur on 11 October.
  
  
• South African thermal coal exports up in Sep'24: South African non-coking (thermal) coal export shipments in September 2024 were at 5.14 million tonnes (mnt) compared to 5.11 mnt in August 2024, reflecting a 1% increase m-o-m. However, exports were up 6% y-o-y from 4.85 mnt in September 2023.
  
  

Outlook

South African prices have been unchanged for the week and are expected to remain unchanged due to festive season and low demand. However, low port sock may push the prices temporarily. The portside prices are anticipated to be under pressure on low demand and falling sponge market.