India: Portside South African coal prices remain supported despite limited trades

• Sponge iron prices fall over INR 1,000/t w-o-w
  
  
• Domestic coal prices remain stable
  
  

BigMint's latest assessment shows that portside prices of South African thermal coal edged up w-o-w. RB2 (5500 NAR) assessed at INR 9,550 per tonne (t), up INR 50/t while RB3 was at INR 7,700/t, ex-Gangavaram, up INR 100/t. Prices remained unchanged despite the rise in sponge prices.

Offers from a few market participants were up for the weak. However, buying was subdued amid sufficient stockpiles and steep decline in sponge prices. Also, major sponge players were more towards buying domestic material and lowered their purchase of imported coal. South African coal trades to India remained on lower side due to bid offer disparity

Thermal or non-coking coal stocks at Indian ports saw a slight 3.5% decline in week 45 to 11.99 million tonnes (mnt) from 12.43 mnt in week 44, according to BigMint's data.

Market overview

• RB3 prices stable w-o-w: RB3 (4800 NAR) offers remained unchanged w-o-w at $70/t FOB. RB2 (5500 NAR) prices edged up w-o-w at $90.5/t FOB.
  
  
• India's domestic coal prices stable amid muted market sentiment: BigMint's latest assessment reports steady domestic coal prices, with 4500 GCV at INR 5,900/t and 5000 GCV at INR 7,300/t exw-Bilaspur.The market continues to witness limited buying and restrained demand, reflecting cautious sentiment. Experts anticipate potential price movements following the upcoming auctions, with improved buying likely to emerge in the coming weeks as market dynamics shift.
  
  
• Sponge iron prices drop down:Sponge iron (P-DRI) prices fell by INR 1,350/t w-o-w to INR 25,550/t exw-Raipur on 15 November.
  
  
• South African thermal coal exports up: South African non-coking (thermal) coal export shipments in October totalled 6.23 mnt, reflecting a 21% increase from 5.14 mnt in September 2024. Y-o-Y, exports were up 47%, compared to 4.23 mnt in October 2023.
  
  

Outlook

South African thermal coal prices in India are expected to see a rise. Besides, with the number of offers reducing at RBCT port due to strike, prices may remain supported in the near term.

Last week, the MPDC and Lebombo border at Komatipoort, a main entry point from South Africa to Maputo, was shut due to intensified post-election violence. Maputo port authorities warned stakeholders that a fresh round of protests expected from mid of the week could again disrupt coal. Market participants shared that inbounds specifically on the trucks will be impacted hugely.