India: Portside prices of Indonesian non-coking coal hold steady w-o-w despite sluggish market

• Reduced industrial activity pressures prices lower
  
  
• Suppliers incur losses on trades amid weak demand
  
  

Indonesian non-coking coal prices at Indian ports remained stable w-o-w despite subdued demand stemming from reduced industrial activity, particularly in sectors such as ceramics. As a result, the market for low-GCV coal (GAR) remained sluggish, with no significant price fluctuations expected in the short term.

While some buying activity was seen, it was limited, with buyers taking advantage of comparatively low prices to purchase small volumes. Market sentiment was cautious, with several suppliers engaging in loss-making transactions due to the ongoing demand slowdown.

Indonesian coal prices were also influenced by the downturn in China's domestic coal market, driven by the Lunar New Year holidays, which slowed down trade and reduced demand. This exacerbated the sluggish conditions in the global coal market.

Notably, 3400 GAR prices at Navlakhi Port dropped by INR 50/tonne (t) w-o-w to INR 4,650/t. For 4200 GAR coal at Kandla, prices fell by INR 50/t w-o-w to INR 5,850/t, while Vizag's prices remained stable at INR 5,750/t. On the other hand, prices of 5000 GAR at Kandla declined by INR 100/t w-o-w to INR 7,700/t and of high-GCV coal at Vizag dropped by INR 50/t to INR 7,650/t.

Non-coking coal inventories at Indian ports rose by 2% to 14.22 mnt in the second week of CY'25, up from 13.93 mnt in the first week, according to BigMint's data.

Indonesian indexed prices also saw a slight decline w-o-w. High-CV (5800 GAR) coal prices decreased by $0.77/t to $87.99/t, mid-CV (4200 GAR) fell by $0.56/t to $49.11/t, and low-CV (3400 GAR) dropped by $0.36/t to $30.07/t. All prices are on FOB basis.

Outlook

Reduced industrial activity, particularly in sectors such as ceramics, along with global factors such as the slowdown in China, continue to create uncertainty surrounding future price movements.