India: Monthly average HR plate prices drop further by INR 2,100/t ($25/t) in Aug'24

• Weekly prices of HSM plates remain range-bound
  
  
• Trade market prices are likely to soften further
  
  

The monthly average trade-level prices of hot-rolled (HR) plates (E250 Br, 20-40mm) in the Mumbai region have dropped over the past couple of months to INR 54,900/tonne (t) ($654/t) exy-Mumbai, excluding 18% GST. This marks the second consecutive decline, with prices falling by INR 2,100/t ($25/t) m-o-m in August, following a previous drop of INR 1,000/t ($12/t) in July.

BigMint's weekly assessment for HR plates (IS2062, Gr E250 Br, 20-40mm) was around INR 52,000-55,500/t ($619-661/t) exy-Mumbai as of 4 September 2024, down by INR 700/t ($8/t) w-o-w.

Meanwhile, weekly prices of hot strip mill (HSM) plates (IS2062, Gr E250 Br, 5-10mm) remained range-bound at INR 50,000-51,000/t ($595-607/t) exy-Mumbai, influenced by the decline in hot rolled coil (HRC) prices. The prices mentioned above exclude GST at 18%.

(INR 1 = USD 0.0119063; USD 1 = INR 83.9895)

Factors that dragged prices down:

Mills reduce prices for August: Major plate producers announced a reduction in their list prices towards the end of the first week of August. Subsequent to the announcement the list prices of HR plates (IS2062, Gr E250 Br, 20-40mm) from the private producers stood around INR 53,750-57,750/t ($640-652/t) ex-Mumbai. For early June 2024, these were around INR 56,250-58,000/t ($670-691/t) ex-Mumbai. The prices mentioned above exclude GST at 18%.

The market is abuzz with the news that some mills have reduced their list prices, while a few have rolled over for early-September 2024 sales. However, the list price levels remained elusive and shall be reported in a follow-up article as and when confirmed.

Infrastructure, green energy show signs of slowing down: Demand and activity in the business-to-customer (B2C) segment of mills, particularly in the infrastructure and green energy sectors, began showing signs of slowing down in June 2024. The pace of national highway construction slowed to 646 kilometers (km) in June 2024, down from 805 km in the preceding month, according to data from the Ministry of Road Transport and Highways (MoRTH). The data for July 2024 is expected to be released in the coming days.

In the green energy segment, the m-o-m increase in installed wind power capacity was a modest 419 megawatts (MW) in July (reaching 47,075.43 MW), slightly higher than the 234 MW added in June, according to data from the Central Electricity Authority (CEA).

Additionally, demand from end-buyers in the traders' market segment has also declined. Inquiries remain low due to erratic seasonal rainfalls and the sluggish pace of activity in plate-consuming industries, as reported by distribution network sources to BigMint.

3. Global plate prices decline in August: Global plate prices dropped by around $45/t towards the month-end of August 2024 compared with the beginning, as demand remained slow in the global trade platform. The weekly assessed Chinese-origin heavy plates (SS400) export offers stood around $500/t FOB on 7 August and gradually dropped to $480/t FOB towards the month-end, as per BigMint data.

Offers have dropped to $475/t FOB as of the recent assessment on 4 September, down by $5/t w-o-w.

Outlook

Trade market prices are likely to stay range-bound due to the decline in global plate prices, while participants anticipate an improvement in demand in the domestic market.