India: MOIL lifts manganese ore prices for Jan'25. Know why?

• Imported manganese ore prices edge up m-o-m in Dec
  
  
• Domestic silico manganese prices remain largely stable
  
  

MOIL, India's state-owned mining company, announced a slight increase in offers for manganese ore, effective from January 2025. Mn grades above 44% have witnessed a marginal hike of 1% in offers m-o-m, while lumps below 44% saw an uptick by 5% from last month's offer, BigMint learnt from sources. Meanwhile, all SMGR (Mn-30%, Mn-25% & Mn20%) and fines grades have been raised by 5%.

Factors that supported prices

Imported manganese ore prices edge up 3% m-o-m in Dec: South African-origin manganese ore (37%) prices witnessed a 3% m-o-m rise to a monthly average of $4.07/dry metric tonne unit (dmtu) in December, compared to $3.94/dmtu in November. Meanwhile, for manganese ore of Australian (46%) and Gabonese (44%) origin, prices rose by 3% to $4.8/dmtu in December as against $4.36/dmtu in November and $4.2/dmtu in December against $4.07/dmtu in November, respectively.

While demand for manganese alloys remains modest, producers have adjusted prices to offset higher input costs and other operational expenses.

Global miners hike manganese ore offers for Jan'25: Eramet Comilog, a major manganese exporter from Gabon, set January 2025 shipment prices at $4.1/dmtu for Mn 44.5% lumps and $3.9/dmtu for 43% grade chips, both CIF China. These prices reflect a $0.15/dmtu increase m-o-m for both. Meanwhile, South32 also increased its offers for 37% grade South African lumps to $4.05/dmtu CIF China, up by $0.25/dmtu m-o-m.

However, United Manganese of Kalahari (UMK) maintained its prices of 36% grade lumps unchanged m-o-m at $3.90/dmtu.

Indian domestic silico manganese prices largely stable in Dec: Monthly average prices of Indian silico manganese (60-14) remained largely stable, with a slight rise of INR 130/t ($2/t) m-o-m to INR 66,000/t ($771/t) exw-Raipur in December from INR 65,870/t ($769/t) in November, as per data maintained with BigMint.

Prices rose slightly, driven by production cuts at key smelters and a slight recovery in the steel market. BigMint reported that smelters in Durgapur, Raipur, and Vizag reduced output by up to 50% due to weak overseas inquiries and subdued domestic demand.

Additionally, a moderate rebound in steel prices was observed this month, supported by increased buying activity in both the semi-finished and finished segments, offering some optimism for market participants.

India's silico manganese export prices hold firm in Dec: Silico manganese (60-14) export prices witnessed a slight decline of 2% or $14/t m-o-m to $791/t FOB India in December, compared to $805/t in November. However, the 65-16 grade edged down by around $3/t m-o-m to $887/t FOB India in December 2024, as against $891/t in November. Indian exporters were compelled to reduce their offers this month, driven by a combination of factors such as weak global demand, market oversupply, and increased competition, which pressured prices and limited export prospects.

Indian billet prices remain generally stable: Domestic billet prices were mostly stable m-o-m, with tags at INR 38,900/t ($455/t) exw-Raipur in December compared to INR 39,190/t ($458/t) in November, a slight decline of INR 290/t ($3/t). Weak buying activity and subdued demand in both the semi-finished and finished steel segments this month negatively impacted domestic billet prices, leading to reduced market confidence.

Outlook

With the Indian market seeing a rebound in manganese alloy prices and global miners raising their January 2025 shipment quotes, it is expected that manganese ore prices will remain range-bound at the current levels, experiencing slight fluctuations, with minimal chances of a downward correction.