India: Miners lift manganese ore offers for Jan'25, positive market shifts likely

• MOIL's lower-grade ore tags inch up 5% m-o-m
  
  
• Improved steel, alloy demand pushes up ore tags
  
  

Indian manganese ore producers raised their prices for January 2025 deliveries in response to MOIL's recent increase in offers. For January 2025, MOIL lifted offers for Mn grades above 44% by a marginal 1% m-o-m, while lumps below 44% saw an uptick of 5% m-o-m, BigMint learnt from sources. Additionally, prices of all SMGR (Mn 30%, Mn 25%, and Mn 20%) and fines grades were raised by 5%.

Following this, most Indian producers in key mining regions implemented similar price hikes. Prices edged up for both higher (Mn content above 44%) and lower grades (below 44%).

Region-wise price adjustments

Madhya Pradesh: Manganese ore grades below 44% saw a 5% m-o-m price hike in Madhya Pradesh, while grades above 44% saw a slight increase of 1% m-o-m. The uptick in offers aligns with MOIL's price revision and can be attributed to higher domestic steel demand. Improved steel production also boosted demand for manganese alloys. The rise in demand for both steel and manganese alloys contributed to the rise in offers for manganese ore.

A prominent miner stated, "Demand for manganese ore in the country has shown improvement, yet a gap remains between costs and the current offers. Looking ahead, we expect a more supportive market environment, with prices expected to rise. This would enable miners to recover from the losses experienced over the past six months, allowing for more sustainable operations and a stronger financial position moving forward."

Odisha: Key Odisha-based miners also lifted tags of 30-32% grade manganese ore by 4% m-o-m, in sync with MOIL's latest adjustments. Another grade, 28-30%, experienced a rise of 6% m-o-m. The uptrend comes in the wake of increased demand for manganese ore and tight supply in the region, which has led to low inventories with alloy producers. These factors contributed to improved market conditions.

A key miner informed BigMint, "The seaborne market has remained subdued for the past two months, leading to a subsequent decline in cargo arrivals at the port. As a result, many domestic alloy producers have shifted focus to sourcing ore locally instead of depending on foreign material. We are optimistic that this domestic demand will continue to strengthen in the coming months, supporting stable market conditions for manganese ore."

Andhra Pradesh: Miners in Vizag, an export-centric region and a key producer of low-grade manganese ore (below 25%), kept their offers unchanged m-o-m. This stability can be attributed to a cautious market outlook, with fluctuating demand and supply dynamics leading to a wait-and-watch mode. The focus was on maintaining prices while assessing market trends for future decisions.

A miner from Vizag stated, "Demand has seen a slight uptick due to improvements in both global and domestic steel markets. Additionally, global miners have raised their manganese ore offers, influencing domestic prices. However, the key question remains: how long will these prices sustain?"

Factors influencing manganese ore prices

Imported manganese ore prices edge up 3% m-o-m in Dec: South African-origin manganese ore (37%) prices witnessed a 3% m-o-m rise to a monthly average of $4.07/dry metric tonne unit (dmtu) in December, compared to $3.94/dmtu in November. Meanwhile, for manganese ore of Australian (46%) and Gabonese (44%) origin, prices rose by 3% to $4.8/dmtu in December as against $4.36/dmtu in November and $4.2/dmtu in December against $4.07/dmtu in November, respectively.

Global miners hike manganese ore offers for Jan'25: Eramet Comilog, a major manganese exporter from Gabon, set January 2025 shipment prices at $4.1/dmtu for Mn 44.5% lumps and $3.9/dmtu for 43% grade chips, both CIF China. These prices reflect a $0.15/dmtu increase m-o-m for both. Meanwhile, South32 also increased its offers for 37% grade South African lumps by $0.25/dmtu m-o-m to $4.05/dmtu CIF China.

However, United Manganese of Kalahari (UMK) maintained its prices of 36% grade lumps unchanged m-o-m at $3.90/dmtu.

Domestic silico manganese prices largely stable in Dec: Monthly average prices of Indian silico manganese (60-14) remained largely stable, with a slight rise of INR 130/tonne (t) ($2/t) m-o-m to INR 66,000/t ($771/t) exw-Raipur in December from INR 65,870/t ($769/t) in November, as per data maintained with BigMint.

Prices increased slightly due to production cuts at major smelters and a modest recovery in the steel market. BigMint reported that smelters in Durgapur, Raipur, and Vizag reduced output by up to 50%.

Outlook

Manganese ore offers are expected to edge up during the month, driven by improving market conditions, a rise in inquiries, and increased offers from global miners. This supports a positive outlook for pricing.