India: Met coke prices remain stable; transaction volumes contract

• Chinese mills plan second round of price cut
  
  
• Indian met coke import volumes drop in Oct'24
  
  

Domestic met coke prices in India remained steady this week. According to BigMint's assessment, the 25-90 mm blast furnace (BF) grade met coke was priced at INR 33,400 per tonne (t) ex-works in Jajpur, with prices in Gandhidham holding firm at INR 29,600/t. Low transactions were heard concluded this week. Eastern India-based merchant coke producers said they have locked about 7,000 t of met coke deals at INR 33,500-34,000/t exw levels.

India's coke imports dropped 18% in October to 0.26 mnt as against 0.32 mnt in September. Indonesia and Japan were the largest exporters at 0.08 mnt each followed by Australia at 0.05 mnt. Tata Steel imported highest amount of material at 0.14 mnt followed by AM/NS at 0.088 mnt.

Market overview -

India: Imported met coke offers from Indonesia rise $10/t w-o-w

Met coke import offers are currently at $285/t FOB Indonesia. December and January loading vessels have been sold out. Steel mills are preferring to buy bulk cargoes on competitive Indonesian met coke prices. Market participants informed that met coke import offers will witness a significant price variation once Chinese mills announce another round of price change.

Coking coal prices down slightly w-o-w:Australian coking coal PHCC prices edged down w-o-w to $203/t FOB yesterday. The metallurgical coal market remained within a narrow range as participants stayed on the sidelines, anticipating the impact of the U.S. elections on near-term market direction. Sentiment in China continued to trend bearish.

Chinese met coke price cut awaited: Discussions have resurfaced in China about a potential second round of coke price cuts, estimated at Yuan 50-55/mt, which mills may initiate in the coming days. However, the implementation of this price cut will depend on the movement of coke futures prices on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE). China's metallurgical coke producers accepted a price reduction of RMB 50-55/t proposed by steelmakers marking the end of six consecutive price hikes. Market participants are now anticipating additional price declines.

Indian pig iron prices drop w-o-w:Steel-grade pig iron prices in Durgapur declined by INR 1,000/t to INR 36,800/t exw, while those in Ludhiana increased by INR 400/t w-o-w.

Outlook

India's met coke market is expected to remain stable in the near term. Import volumes could see fluctuations, especially as Indonesian offers gain traction due to competitive pricing.

However, the potential for further Chinese price cuts may inject volatility into met coke pricing. Additionally, coking coal and coke futures prices on the Dalian Commodity Exchange could face downward pressure as market sentiment remains bearish, driven by concerns over potential U.S. trade policies which may impact Chinese exports.