India: Imports of lead scrap, semis surge y-o-y in H1CY'24
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In H1CY'24, lead scrap imports have significantly increased by 40% to 65,000 tonnes (t) in comparison with 45,600 t in H1CY'23. Lead scrap imports in June stood at 14,700 t, as per provisional data maintained with BigMint.
The average LME lead price has marginally increased by 2% in H1 to settle at $2,148/t in comparison with $2,097/t in H1CY'23.
India's limited lead reserves (2.5% of global reserves and 2.2 mnt in total) drive increased focus on lead recycling. Secondary lead, derived from recycling, is preferred to newly mined lead due to environmental and cost benefits.
India's increased lead scrap imports are driven by rising domestic demand, especially in the battery and electronics industries. Limited local lead production and the need for high-quality recycling material from advanced foreign sources, too, are contributing factors. Additionally, streamlined regulations and economic factors make importing lead scrap more viable and efficient.
Grade-wise imports
The top grade imported was Radio, which increased by 35% in H1 to 37,400 t in comparison with 27,700 t in H1 of last year, followed by Realy at 9,080 t, a decrease of 21% y-o-y compared to 11,550 t in H1CY'23.
Country-wise shipments
The top exporter in H1 were US (27,370 t) followed by Qatar (24,330 t), UK (8,870 t), UAE (2,800 t) and others at 1,550 t.
The US exported substantial volumes of lead scrap to India due to its advanced recycling infrastructure and excess capacity. India's growing demand from its battery and electronics sectors makes it a key market. Exports are economically efficient for the US as it spares domestic disposal costs, and trade agreements between the countries forms a bulwark of support.
Semi-finished lead imports
In H1, semi-finished lead imports surged 90% to 264,570 t compared to 140,169 t in H1 of last year. Imports in June stood at 41,046 t.
The growth in lead recycling within the country has significantly boosted the demand for semi-finished lead products. As recycled lead from batteries and other sources is processed further, the need for these products has risen.
India's limited domestic lead production capacity and reserves necessitate reliance on imports to meet growing demand. With insufficient local production, importing semi-finished lead becomes essential to satisfy industrial needs.
Additionally, the expanding industrial use of lead, especially in battery manufacturing and electronics, has heightened the need for semi-finished lead products. This growing demand from various industries contributes to the rise in imports.
Key exporters
In H1CY'24, South Korea emerged as the top exporter at 98,220 t, a phenomenal increase from 26,940 t in H1CY'23, followed by Malaysia (56,080 t), marking a 120% increase from 25,400 t in H1CY'23. The Philippines exported 13,260 t, while other countries collectively shipped 97,000 t.
South Korea exports increased significantly due to its advanced manufacturing and surplus production. High-quality lead meets India's growing industrial demand, especially for lead-acid batteries. Favourable trade agreements and economic factors boost trade, benefiting both nations.
Battery sector demand
As per BigMint analysis, in H1CY'24 out of total imports of over 264,000 t of lead semis nearly 130,000 t was imported just for EV battery manufacture, thereby accounting for around 50% of total imports.
EV sales in India are projected to rise by 66% this year after nearly doubling in 2023. This surge is driven by state subsidies and improved infrastructure amid growing climate concerns, as per sources.
In 2024, EVs are expected to account for 4% of passenger vehicle sales, growing to nearly one-third by 2030. Government incentives and lower import taxes are attracting foreign automakers, with Tesla and VinFast making significant investments in India.
Maruti Suzuki's entry into the EV market may disrupt Tata's dominance. VinFast's new factory highlights rising investment and competition. Increased EV battery manufacturing by companies like Ola and Reliance, along with the Make in India initiative, is set to reduce production costs and boost sales.
Government initiatives like the PLI scheme and reduced import duties are boosting investments and creating a favourable environment for EVs in India. This is expected to drive innovation and competition in the country's passenger vehicle market.
