India: Imported manganese ore prices surge after brief period of stagnation

• Supply constraints, cost pressures fuel price hike
  
  
• Reduced shipping costs trigger bulk booking in Indian market
  
  
• Weekly cargo arrivals decrease at Indian ports
  
  

Following three weeks of stability, imported manganese ore prices have witnessed a sharp increase of 9% week-on-week, indicating a potential uptrend in the global market.

Gabonese high-grade manganese ore (44%): Prices rose by $0.50/dmtu (11%) to $4.95/dmtu, reflecting increased production and handling costs. Additionally, limited rail maintenance disruptions in Gabon contributed to the price rise.

Australian high-grade manganese ore (46%): Prices surged by $0.55/dmtu (12%) to $4.75/dmtu. This significant increase is a result of limited supply caused by a two-month production stoppage by major producer South 32. Increased inquiries from Chinese buyers further fueled the price upward movement.

South African lumps Mn 37% grade: A moderate rise of $0.20/dmtu(5%) to $4.35/dmtu suggests limited upward momentum due to production cuts in the region.

Supporting factors:

• Market re-balancing and increased demand: The major manganese ore producing countries - Australia, South Africa, and Gabon - are witnessing a re-balancing of the market as spot market availability diminishes. This dynamic, coupled with rising steel prices, has prompted the Indian market to initiate fresh inquiries to maintain inventory levels.
  
  

• Rising manganese alloy prices: The increase in domestic manganese alloy prices like silico manganese (grade 60-14), as evidenced by a rise of INR 1,300/t exw ($16/t) to INR 69,600/t exw ($833/t), provides a positive signal to overseas ore producers. This suggests potentially higher demand for ore in the future as domestic steel prices follow a similar upward trend.
  
  
• Logistics concerns spur bulk bookings: Reduced freight shipment prices have incentivized Indian manganese alloy producers to explore bulk bookings, potentially leading to cost savings of $100-$200 per container. This has instilled confidence in Mn ore producers regarding a potential rise in demand, prompting them to maintain robust offers for bulk purchases.
  
  
• Recent price hikes hint at a shift in imported manganese ore market. Need to monitor production, freight costs, and steel prices crucial for future price trajectory.
  
  

Imported cargo arrivals decrease: Manganese ore cargo arrivals to India decreased by 49% (Mn37%, Mn44%, and Mn46%), with weekly shipments reaching 82,261 t between 03 April and 09 April 2024, up from 162,004 t in the previous week. The weekly import volume of manganese ore has declined from the previous week's.