India: Imported manganese ore prices remain stable w-o-w
...
- Weekly imported cargo arrivals to India fall 17%
- South32 withdraws guidance amid cyclone damage
Imported manganese ore prices maintained a flat trend w-o-w, reflecting balanced market dynamics.
- Gabonese high-grade manganese ore (44%) held steady at $4.45/dmtu, demonstrating continued stability in this segment.
- Australian high-grade manganese ore (46%) stayed firm at $4.6/dmtu, indicating potential softening in demand.
- South African lumps Mn 37% graded witnessed the same level this week, at $4.15/dmtu, suggesting a possibility of limited upward momentum amid production cuts.
Last week, the manganese ore market remained firm, with need-based buying. However, a progressive decline in manganese alloy output from Indian smelters had an impact on the market, since reduced alloy production resulted in fewer inquiries and purchase of manganese ore, contributing to stable prices overall.
An industry source informed BigMint that manganese ore prices are expected to hold steady in the near term. This expectation stems from a decline in global demand for manganese alloys which is exerting downward pressure on prices. Existing stockpiles of manganese ore remain high, further hindering any potential price increase.
Factors impacting imported manganese ore prices
Higher inventories from smelters weigh on imported ore inquiries: The manganese ore market is now experiencing sluggish demand and lack of price support. Smelters stocking up for 2-3 months are reducing their immediate demand for fresh ore. Manganese ore prices are thus struggling to climb up due to a lack of buying pressure.
The temporary suspension of manganese alloy production facilities in Durgapur, Raipur, and Vizag has further constrained supply, potentially influencing future market dynamics.
This scenario, depending on the recovery schedule of closed plants and the production levels of existing smelters, is creating a potential supply-demand imbalance for manganese ore.
Buyers in wait-&-watch mode: The manganese ore market is currently characterized by a cautious wait-and-see sentiment. Spot trading activity is subdued, and downstream demand for manganese ore needs improvement. While inquiries exist, actual transactions remain limited, highlighting the persistent gap between supply and demand.
However, there are potential signs of a future supply shift. Cost considerations and a decrease in South African manganese ore shipments may lead to a reduction in port arrivals. This potential supply decrease could alleviate the current pressure on the manganese ore market. Market participants are closely monitoring these developments with the expectation of a subsequent improvement in market conditions.
Imported cargo arrivals fall 17% w-o-w: Manganese ore cargo arrivals to India declined by 17% (Mn37%, Mn44%, and Mn46%) with weekly shipments reaching 76,200 t between 13-19 March 2024 compared to the previous week's 92,350 t. The weekly import volume of manganese ore has primarily decreased because of low demand in the manganese alloys market.
South32 withdraws manganese guidance on cyclone damage: South32 withdrew its FY'24 forecast for Australian manganese output of 3.4 wmnt due to tropical cyclone Megan's impact on its GEMCO unit. Initial assessments show flooding in the mine pits, with the miner prioritising safety and halting production. The company aims to mitigate disruptions with alternative shipping and will update FY'24 guidance in its Q1 results.
