India: Imported manganese ore prices inch up on supply concerns, price surge

• Resurgent Indian demand drives activity in imported manganese ore market
  
  
• Weekly cargo arrivals recover at Indian ports
  
  

Imported manganese ore prices exhibited a modest increase of 1% w-o-w, driven by a confluence of factors indicating a potential uptrend in the global market.

• Gabonese high-grade ore: Prices of Gabonese high-grade manganese ore (44%) climbed by $0.05/dmtu to $5/dmtu. This increase reflects rising production and handling costs. Additionally, ongoing rail maintenance in Gabon is having a limited impact on supply. This increase is demonstrated by a recent deal recorded by BigMint, in which an Indian player booked 25,000t of Gabonese lumps (Mn 44%) at $5.1/dmtu, up from $4.95/dmtu at the previous week's close. Supply limits and cost challenges have driven price increases.
  
  
• Australian high-grade ore: Australian high-grade manganese ore (46%) experienced a slight increase of $0.06/dmtu to settle at $5.35/dmtu. This price movement suggests limited ore availability due to a production halt by South32, a major producer, for the next two months. This supply constraint, coupled with rising inquiries from Chinese buyers, has contributed to the upward price movement.
  
  
• South African lumps remain stable: In contrast, South African lumps Mn 37% grade remained stable this week at $4.35/dmtu. This suggests a potential for limited upward price momentum, possibly due to existing production cuts in the region.
  
  

Factors supporting stable imported manganese ore prices

• Upward trajectory in manganese alloys from last two weeks: The recent upward movement in domestic manganese alloys prices (as evidenced by a $36/t increase in silico manganese in all grades on 19 April, as per BigMint) is emboldening overseas ore producers. This price rise signals a potential increase in demand in the near future, further bolstered by rising domestic steel prices.
  
  
• Dwindling high-grade ore inventories: A reduction in readily available high-grade manganese ore within India is prompting a strategic shift towards imported resources. This development is contributing to renewed activity in major manganese ore producing regions like Australia, and Gabon.
  
  
• Bulk booking on rising price: Imported manganese ore prices have risen in recent weeks, particularly for Gabonese ores, which are used as substitutes for the afflicted Australian GEMCO ore.
  
  

Imported cargo arrivals recover w-o-w: Manganese ore cargo arrivals to India increased by 39% (Mn37%, Mn44%, and Mn46%), with weekly shipments reaching 114,005 t between 10 April and 16 April 2024, up from 82,261 t in the previous week.

The current market landscape is characterised by a positive outlook for the global manganese ore market, particularly with respect to Indian demand. This upswing is driven by rising manganese alloys prices, declining freight rates, and logistical challenges faced by ore producers.

Close monitoring of these factors, alongside inventory levels and overall steel production trends, will be crucial for accurately forecasting the future trajectory of the market.