India: Imported Indonesian thermal coal portside prices fall w-o-w on weak demand

• Indian non-coking coal demand remains subdued
  
  
• Buyers wary amid sufficient stock of Indonesian coal at ports
  
  

Prices of Indonesian thermal coal at Indian ports remained under pressure this week due to weak demand. In the domestic thermal coal market, sufficient stock availability, lack of urgency to conclude deals and the approaching winter holidays have weighed on trading activities.

Notably, thermal or non-coking coal stocks at Indian ports increased by 2% to 13 million tonnes (mnt) in week 49, up from 12.74 mnt the previous week. This marks the third consecutive week of rising thermal coal stocks, according to data from BigMint.

Prices of 3400 GAR coal at Navlakhi Port inched down by INR 50/t w-o-w at INR 4,700/tonne (t). At Kandla, 4200 GAR was stable w-o-w at INR 5,900/t and at Vizag, 4200 GAR dropped INR 100/t to INR 5,750/t. Additionally, 5000 GAR coal offers at Kandla were stable w-o-w at INR 7,900/t, and at Vizag, high-calorific value (CV) coal prices were stable w-o-w at INR 7,800/t.

Low-CV coal offers decline

The Indian ceramic industry, which primarily relies on domestic coal, has experienced improved demand in recent times. However, the overall market remains uncertain, with no significant inquiries received so far. Despite stable supply chains and increased domestic stock levels at Indian ports, the market continues to be sluggish. It is expected that the situation will improve as we move into the New Year but for now the outlook remains cautious.

Notably, Indian buyers showed limited interest amid high port stocks and expectations of further price correction. Also, lower bids reflected minimal urgency for procurement.

An Indian trader stated, "The market remains largely subdued, with minimal activity to drive prices upward. While buyers are present to fulfill their requirements, they are exerting downward pressure on prices due to the lack of strong global market momentum."

Chinese buyers seeking cost-effective material

In China, the situation remains unchanged, with continued demand for more affordable deals and cost-effective options. Buyers are well-stocked, and price movements are expected to remain minimal in the near term, keeping trade volumes lower.

Trend of Indonesian index

Indonesian indexed prices of high-CV (5800 GAR) coal were recorded at $93.30/t, down $1.03/t. Mid-CV (4200 GAR) prices decreased by $0.55/t to $51.29/t, and low-CV (3400 GAR) was recorded at $31.57/t, a fall of $0.36/t. All prices are on FOB basis.

An Indonesian source noted, "The Indian market remains uncertain with limited new inquiries expected until after January, while China continues to focus on securing low-cost deals. In Indonesia, coal stocks are ample, but buyers remain scarce."