India: Imported, domestic stainless steel scrap prices remain steady w-o-w driven by subdued demand

• Weak finished demand, high inventories persist
  
  
• LME nickel tags rebound from 3-year lows
  
  

India's domestic and imported stainless steel (SS) scrap prices remained stable w-o-w despite a rise in LME nickel tags. Scrap buying was limited by persistent weak demand and high inventories in the finished SS segment.

Imported SS scrap prices have dropped by approximately $50/tonne (t) since mid-December 2024 till early 2025. The decline has been driven by weak demand for finished products and abundant steel inventories. Recent increases in LME nickel prices have failed to reverse the downtrend.

As per BigMint's assessment, domestic 304-grade SS scrap stood at INR 118,000/t ($/t) ex-Delhi, while the imported variant of the same, originating from the nearshore region, was priced at $1,310/t CFR Mundra.

LME nickel prices rise 3% w-o-w

At the time of reporting, three-month LME nickel prices stood at $15,905/t, up by 3% from last week's $15,505/t. Meanwhile, nickel stocks in LME-registered warehouses remained stable at 167,994 t, a marginal increase from the previous week's 164,310 t.

LME nickel prices hit a 3-year low of $14,900/t in early 2025 but rebounded to around $15,900/t amid Indonesia's potential mining restrictions. Nickel prices had earlier been on a declining trajectory for two years, stemming from Indonesia's large-scale mining and weak global demand. Recent Chinese macroeconomic policies and Indonesia's tighter supply controls have driven a recovery in international nickel prices.

BigMint's bi-weekly assessments

• Nearshore-origin SS 316 scrap (loose) was at $2,520/t, steady w-o-w.
  
  
• Nearshore-origin SS 201 scrap (loose) was at $695/t, steady w-o-w.
  
  
• Nearshore-origin SS 430 scrap (loose) was at $600/t, steady w-o-w.
  
  
• SS 316 scrap, ex-Delhi stood at INR 217,000/t ($/t), unchanged w-o-w.
  
  

Imported market scenario

Suppliers offered SS 316 scrap at $2,540-2,550/t, while bids hovered at around $2,500-2,510/t. Suppliers raised their offers, primarily due to the increase in LME nickel prices. However, any rise in prices was offset by lower bids.

Meanwhile, SS 304 scrap offers were heard at $1,320-1,340/t, and bids were observed at $1,290-1,300/t, both CFR Mundra.

However, there were bid-offer disparities in the market. Additionally, due to weak demand and high inventories in the finished segment, limited buying activities were recorded in the market.

A trader source informed BigMint, "It is expected, the stainless steel scrap market may experience volatility throughout January and February, particularly for the 300 and 400 series. This period could see fluctuating prices due to ongoing market uncertainties. However, as we move into March, a downturn is anticipated, with market conditions potentially softening. A key factor that could influence the market is whether Mr. Trump enacts any policy changes related to duties. Should such changes occur, it may provide much-needed clarity and direction to the market, potentially stabilizing the current fluctuations."

In week 3 of 2025, BigMint observed trades for around 100-200 t of 304 scrap at around $1,300/t. Additionally, trades for around 500 t were heard for SS 316 scrap originating from the EU at $2,530/t CFR Mundra.

A trader stated, "The market recovery following the New Year holidays has fallen short of expectations, with demand remaining sluggish. However, cautious optimism remains for a rebound by late January, as market participants await potential demand-boosting measures in the February 2025 Union Budget."

Meanwhile, European domestic prices of SS 304 scrap stood at $1,270-1,290/t, while SS 316 was priced at $2,470-2,490/t.

Domestic market scenario

In the domestic market, trade activities remained low to moderate, with small-volume deals heard at around INR 117,000-119,000/t ($/t) ex-Delhi for SS 304 scrap.