India: Imported copper prices show uptrend even as domestic prices decline w-o-w

Domestic copper armature prices were assessed at INR 740,000/tonne (t) ex-Delhi, remaining stable w-o-w, while copper motors mix scrap prices stood at $1,150/t CFR Mundra, up by $20/t w-o-w.

Secondary continuously cast rods (CCR) (99.90%) were assessed at INR 788,000/t (ex-Delhi), remaining largely stable. Meanwhile, primary CCR prices increased 1% to INR 812,000/t.

Global copper market overview

The three-month LME prices were at $9,098/t, almost stable w-o-w.

A source informed BigMint: "A decision on the proposed copper motor export ban from Europe, expected to be implemented in January 2025, will be made on 18 December. The move is driven by rising local demand in Europe for copper motors to aid in recycling and production. Currently, EU export offers to India are around $1,200/t, with deals on the west coast ranging between $1,150-$1,160/t".

A copper smelter in Gujarat received its first shipment of seaborne copper concentrate, with 32,000 t from Chile arriving at Mundra Port on 10 December. An additional 50,000 t from Peru is expected in January. The unit, which started operations in March, aims to reach a capacity of 0.5 mnt/year by Q1 2025, with expansion plans for the future. India's copper concentrate imports need to double for self-sufficiency in refined copper.

Global supply-demand scenario

A source said, "New copper wire rod production capacities, totalling 100,000 t, are being developed in Maharashtra, Gujarat, and Delhi. These expansions are aimed at meeting the rising demand for copper products, particularly in the electrical sector, ensuring a steady and reliable supply chain for industrial applications across India."

Copper and aluminum scrap procurement amid supply shortages

Sources informed BigMint that due to a shortage of ore supplies from South America and Canada, a major Indian player has started sourcing aluminum and copper scrap from selected traders. Australia's full capacity is currently the only source meeting demand. Similarly, a large scale player from Gujarat has begun acquiring scrap through select traders, reflecting a shift in sourcing raw materials to cope with supply constraints.

Chile's copper production increases in October

Chile's copper production rose 6.4% y-o-y in October, with the Escondida mine seeing a 22% increase to 108,000 t. Codelco's output remained steady at 128,000 t, while Collahuasi's production fell by nearly 10%. The growth is attributed to efficient operations and government support. Chile's copper sector continues to play a significant role in global supply.

Price trends

• BigMint's assessment of US-origin copper motor mix stands at $1,150/t, a rise of $20/t w-o-w.
  
  
• Copper motors mix the EU was heard traded at $1,170/t CIF Mundra.
  
  

Outlook

With the addition of new high-capacity plants and expansion plans, copper scrap demand is expected to rise in the coming months. However, due to subdued year-end trading activities, the market is currently experiencing a temporary slowdown. In the New Year, trade activities are anticipated to gain momentum, driving stronger demand in the copper scrap segment.