India: Imported copper prices rise w-o-w; local markets hold steady

India's demand muted, sales may rise ahead of Diwali

Global copper supply exceeds demand, China production surges

Domestic copper armature prices were assessed at INR 745,000/tonne ex-Delhi, a slight decrease of 2% w-o-w, while copper motors mix scrap prices increased by 5% w-o-w.

Prices of secondary continuously cast rods (CCR) (99.90%) were at INR 802,000/t ex-Delhi, down 2% w-o-w. Meanwhile, primary CCR prices stood at INR 840,000/t, down 1% w-o-w.

A producer stated, "The copper market remains dull with semis manufacturers reducing their purchasing activity after securing enough materials following the monsoon. With ample stock for production, they are now holding off on further purchases, anticipating a potential drop in prices.

Global copper market overview

Copper demand in India remains relatively low, while China has increased its copper purchases, particularly from suppliers in Pakistan and Australia. This surge in China's buying has caught the attention of global markets.

Because China offers better prices, many sellers are prioritising exports to China compared to India. Although Taiwan and Korea are trying to compete with China, its strong presence in the market makes it the top choice for copper exports.

However, refined copper producers are switching to copper scrap for production due to high concentrate costs amid supply crunch, China's copper scrap imports decreased by 6% in September 2024 because of low buying enquiries from fabricated product producers, but still demand remains positive as compared to India owing to the festive season. India may see a rise in trade activities after the festive season ends.

Global supply-demand scenario

Global refined copper supply outpaced demand from January to August, thanks to increased production in China and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), according to the International Copper Study Group (ICSG).

The market had a surplus of about 535,000 t during this period, a significant increase from the 75,000-t surplus recorded a year earlier.

The increase in refined copper production was fuelled by a 6.5% capacity expansion in China and 16% in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Together, China and the DRC make up about 54% of the world's refined copper output, according to the ICSG.

Price trends

BigMint's assessment of USA origin copper motor mix were at $1,215/t, a rise by $60/t w-o-w.

Europe

Millberry scrap was at 97.5-98% of LME cash prices.

Europe no. 1 (Berry/Candy) scrap traded at 96.5-97.5% of LME prices.

Europe no. 2 (Birch/Cliff) scrap was priced at 91-92% of LME cash prices.

Outlook

The demand-supply balance remains steady, though recent fluctuations in LME prices temporarily raised offers. With the price rally now easing, procurement can resume ahead of Diwali.

Supply cuts and economic stimulus measures in China are expected to support global copper prices in the short term.