India: Imported aluminium scrap prices move up w-o-w post-holiday week, LME surge

Imported aluminium scrap prices in India moved up w-o-w amid the rebound in LME prices. Prices of all grades were up by up to $70/tonne (t) this week amidst resumed purchase enquiries after a long holiday week.

Meanwhile, the three-month LME aluminium prices hovered at $2,470-2,480/t up 6% w-o-w. Stocks at LME-registered warehouses stood at 885,400 t. Aluminium prices rebounded after hovering at three-month lows.

A noticeable bid-offer disparity emerged as the market reopened after the local holidays. While prices of major domestic scrap materials remained within a narrow range, imported prices surged in line with the LME movement. Notably, talk, zorba, and wheels are currently experiencing a bid-offer gap of $100-150/t.

A buyer stated: "Shredding operations for talk scrap have slowed down, with reports indicating that shredding machines have been put on hold or shut down. This pause is largely due to the unviable prices caused by significant fluctuations in copper prices."

A trader mentioned that "yard owners, who have sufficient stock, have begun offering material now that the LME has moved up, as they had anticipated".

A reliable source shared that "US TT HRB offers have risen to $1,940-1,950/t, but buyers are hesitant to commit at these prices. The US TT prices are expected to remain high due to a material shortage. Exports of TT from the US have dropped significantly compared to previous years, driven by strong domestic demand, which is putting pressure on export availability."

This situation could also impact UAE TT prices. The reduced supply from the US is likely to keep UAE TT prices firm. Currently, Dammam TT offers are reported at $2120/t, and UAE prices are estimated to be at around $2,150-2,160/t. Market clarity is still pending, and we will have to wait for further developments. Additionally, alloy manufacturers are increasingly focusing on importing alloy ingots directly, given the rising volatility in scrap prices.

According to BigMint's assessment, tense scrap from the Middle East, particularly the UAE, saw a increase of $50/t, settling at $1,780/t. Zorba 95/5 from the UK was up by $50/t at $2,000/t CFR west coast, India.

China's silicon market overview

Prices of China's silicon 553 remained firm at $1,740/t CFR Mundra amid easing freight rates.

Additionally, the freight rates from China to Mundra were heard at $1,700-$1,710/20-foot container.

Domestic scrap market

In the domestic market, tense scrap prices edged up w-o-w in both Delhi and Chennai. According to BigMint's assessment, domestic tense scrap prices are now at INR 175,000/t ex-Delhi NCR and INR 176,000/t ex-Chennai. Market participants expect prices to move up in the near term.

Outlook

The market is likely to stay at around current levels, following the LME, with a potential for prices to edge higher. However, trading activity remains subdued as many participants are still in holiday mode. Trading activity is expected to pick up once they return.