India: Imported aluminium scrap prices fall w-o-w amid lower demand, scheduled maintenance

Aluminium scrap prices in India have remained on downtrend w-o-w. According to BigMint's assessment, Tense scrap price from the US were down by $50/t to $1,920/t while taint tabor prices (USA, HRB-3%) were at $2,025/t after correcting $50/t.

3-M LME aluminium prices at the time of reporting was down 5.1% w-o-w at around $2,785/t.

Additionally, talk scrap prices from the US and UAE fell by over 5% due to a $260/t decrease in LME copper prices recently.

Sentiments from the market

A manufacturer shared "In the US, demand for TT HRB is anticipated to increase as plans to open several rolling mills are about to execute, which will likely reduce TT HRB exports from the region over the next 2-3 years. In India, local demand for aluminium sheets and alloys remains slow, primarily due to a downturn in the auto sector."

In a recent update from the aluminium scrap market, an alloy manufacturer and scrap buyer shared: "Prices have decreased due to the fall in LME aluminium prices. However, buying activity has been noticeably low because buyers are hesitant at these price levels and are waiting for further drops. This has created a significant gap between bids and offers."

Market participants informed BigMint "Major auto OEM companies are currently undergoing maintenance for 10-12 days, resulting in a slow demand of ADC12."

In extrusion segment, the offers from the Middle East market sellers are around $2,445/t. However, actual trade levels are lower, hovering around $2,380-2,410/t. Trade sources also indicate that talk is being traded at 48.5% of LME copper levels.

Domestic scrap market

In the domestic market, tense scrap prices have dropped by INR 2,000/t. BigMint's assessment shows domestic tense scrap prices (ex-Delhi NCR) at INR 184,000/t.

China's silicon market

According to BigMint, prices of China's silicon 553 have risen and were at $2,025/t CFR Mundra majorly because of high freight rates.

The sea freight fee from China to Mundra is $4,000-$4,200 per container.

Outlook

Market activity in the Middle East/UAE is expected to slow down starting Friday due to a five-day Eid holiday. With the market already sluggish, there is little interest in exporting. However looking ahead, as maintenance concludes and auto companies resume operations, prices are likely to experience an upward momentum. This return to production will help address the current supply hold and better align with market demand.