India: Imported aluminium scrap prices continue to decline w-o-w
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India has seen a decline in imported aluminium scrap prices w-o-w today, on range-bound LME prices. Prices for all grades have fallen by up to 1.6% this week, leading to market uncertainty and a cautious approach among market participants.
Meanwhile, three-month LME aluminium prices hovered at $2,225-2,250/t, range-bound w-o-w. Stocks at LME-registered warehouses stood at 922,000 tonnes (t). Aluminium prices are still hovering at three-month lows.
Additionally, amid the holidays in Europe bid-offer disparity still emerged in the market.
According to BigMint's assessment, Tense scrap from the Middle East, particularly the UAE, saw a decrease of $30/t, settling at $1,700/t. Zorba 95/5 from the UK also decreased by $15/t to $1,960/t CFR West Coast, India.
A manufacturer stated "The market remains very slow, with minimal buying interest. Only larger mills, primarily major alloy manufacturers, are procuring materials. The domestic market is also very sluggish."
A trader mentioned, "Yard owners, despite having stocks, are reluctant to offer materials until the LME price returns to $2,300/t, leading to a supply shortage."
A seller source stated, "Prices for all major aluminium scraps have declined. Plant owners are struggling with finished materials and lack of orders, making it challenging to sell in the current market. Despite the lower prices, raw material availability remains limited, especially for tense."
A source said, "Market participants expect fluctuations in LME aluminium prices, which will increase the pressure on imported scrap prices. Additionally, the monsoon season in various parts of India could further disrupt trade."
India's imports of scrap, alloyed aluminium ingots
Imports of aluminium scrap, which is the key raw material for manufacturing alloy ingots, saw a notable 8% drop in the first half of the calendar year 2024 (H1CY'24) to around 809,100 t from 875,000 t in H1CY'23.
India's imports of alloyed aluminium ingots surged 60% to around 112,158 t in H1CY'24. Volumes in the same period of 2023 were at 70,780 t.
China's silicon market
Prices of China's silicon 553 have dropped $30/t reaching $1,760/t CFR Mundra amid easing freight rates. However, buying interest was low because major aluminium alloy manufacturers have sufficient silicon supplies.
Additionally, the freight rate from China to Mundra was heard at $2,100-$2,200/20-foot container.
Domestic scrap market
In the domestic market, tense scrap prices have decreased by INR 1,000/t in both Delhi and Chennai. According to BigMint's assessment, domestic tense scrap prices are now at INR 174,000/t ex-Delhi NCR and INR 175,000/t ex-Chennai. This decline aligns with the falling LME aluminium prices and sluggish market trends.
Outlook
It is expected that the market will remain quite slow due to uncertainty in the LME and numerous holidays (Independence Day long weekend, Janmashtami, which includes extended holidays in Gujarat). However, all eyes will be on the August alloys price settlement which will set the direction of scrap prices.
