India: Impact of anti-dumping duty on HRC imports to India

An anti-dumping investigation into alloyed and non-alloyed hot-rolled (HR) flat product imports originating from Vietnam was initiated on 14 August 2024 by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry through the Directorate General of Trade Remedies (DGTR). This investigation was started after the Indian Steel Association (ISA) filed a complaint on behalf of the major Indian manufacturers of HR products, to avert any sentimental or financial damage afflicted by the cheaper import prices.

Imports of HRC from Vietnam continued to flow in through January to December 2023, as the BIS licence was set to expire by the year's end. The February to May 2024 period was quiet, as the BIS licence renewal got delayed to May, and since then, there has been a consistent increase in the imports from Vietnam. In June 2024, 22,411 tonnes (t) of HRC was imported from Vietnam, which increased to 31,883 t in July. In the first 19 days of August 2024, the volumes spiked to 127,538 t, as per bulk vessel lineup data maintained with BigMint. This is 32% of the total import volume of 400,590 t till the mentioned date and stands second to South Korea (38%).

Imports being delivered in August 2024 were booked in the early June to mid-July period, and the last heard price from Vietnam for the August delivery was around $580/t CFR India, roughly INR 50,500/t landed Mumbai. This dropped to $562-568/t CFR India for September delivery import bookings, computing to around INR 49,000-49,600/t landed Mumbai. In contrast, the average domestic market exy-Mumbai prices for HRC (IS 2062, Gr E250 Br., 2.5-8mm/CTL) stood higher in June (INR 53,800/t) and July (INR 52,300/t). Furthermore, till the last assessment on 24 August 2024, prices remained higher, hovering around INR 50,700/t exy-Mumbai on average.

It is likely that importers in India shall bring forward the deliveries scheduled for early to mid-September 2024 to avoid any further drop in their margins in case the domestic market prices decline in the upcoming weeks.

Moreover, export offers for HRC from China, the global steel giant, have been sliding downward continuously on a weekly note. Chinese HRC (SS400) export offers, tracked weekly, were around $495/t FOB Rizhao at the beginning of August and then dropped to $480/t FOB in the middle of the month. Last week, they were assessed to be at $455/t FOB, in continuation of an overall downward trend. This might keep the imported material prices lucrative while maintaining pressure on the domestic mill prices and restricting an increase.