India: HRC trade prices edge down amid declining sales

Hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices remained rangebound, establishing a range between INR 52,400 and INR 56,500/t ($628-677/t). Cold-rolled (CR) coil prices exhibited a degree of stability, maintaining a range of INR 58,000-63,400/t ($699-760/t) across markets. The current traders' market reflects a state of panic with decline in sales.

BigMint's benchmark assessment (bi-weekly) for HRC (2.5-8mm, IS2062, Gr E-250 Br.) prices remained stable at INR 53,800/t ($645/t) on 25 June 2024 compared to the previous week. However, CRC (0.90mm, IS 513, CR1) prices went down by INR 500/t ($6/t) to INR 59,800/t ($717/t) during the same period. These prices are quoted ex-Mumbai, excluding 18% GST, and are for cut-to-length (CTL) deliveries. (INR 1 = USD 0.0119862 ; USD 1 = INR 83.4296)

Market Updates

1. Market under pressure: The traders' market is currently grappling with prolonged sluggishness attributed to declining sales and increased imports. End-users have deferred purchases in anticipation of reduced prices of HRC.

According to a market participant, "Market sentiment remains subdued with sales currently at 50% of our average monthly figures. Reports indicating heightened import orders at lower landed costs are aggravating fears and dampening sentiment further as buyers are deferring purchases in expectation of a price decline."

2. Export-import trends: India's bulk HRC and plate imports are surging, according to vessel line-up data by BigMint. Imports are outpacing exports, with an estimated additional 129,579 t expected to arrive by the end of June. Few deals were heard concluded from Vietnam 1,10,000t at $572-585 CFR and from China 30,000t at $552-557 CFR.

Indian hot-rolled coil (HRC) export offers to Southeast Asia and the Middle East (ME) are muted. Indian steel mills continued to hold their HRC export offers (S275, 3mm) to the EU this week even as market participants are awaiting fresh HRC import quotas.